Updating the 2014 General Election Data

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UPDATE: 12/1 (5:00pm)

All of the spreadsheets in the Analysis section for the statewide races have been updated with the 2014 certified general election totals. Also, I have changed the way they are displayed and made it easier for you to take this info in widget format by adding “Copy this Widget” code for each, just copy and paste that into your own websites for your own use. For example here is the data by region – traditional collars that appeared here on the front page often leading up to the election:

End of update.


Tonight the Illinois State Board of Elections will meet to certify the election results. Once those results are made available I’ll start work on updating the site with all of the data from the 2014 general election. I should have all of the election profiles and the analysis spreadsheets (updated) updated pretty quickly, probably sometime this week.

The maps will probably take a little longer. I only add new maps about every two years and it seems like each time I do Google has added some new security protocol to the batch update process and their documentation is rarely helpful. I will get them done as soon as I can.

Another fun new feature of this election could come soon as well:

10 ILCS 5/22-6 (b)
Beginning with the November 2014 general election and every primary, consolidated, general, and special election thereafter, within 52 days after each election, the State Board of Elections shall publish the precinct-by-precinct vote totals on its website and make them available in a downloadable form.

That should happen no later than around Christmas. I have no idea how the State Board plans to implement this but hopefully it should allow us to parse the data in all sorts of ways including a) seeing how the Governor’s race candidates (or other races) performed by congressional, state house and state senate district and b) seeing how the statewide referenda fared in each district, etc. I have zero interest in replicating any functionality offered by the State Board of Elections but if all they offer is raw data and it is in some sort of format that will allow us to convert it into a usable database I’ll probably spend some time building some functionality so that it can be parsed in various useful ways.

And then come January the final campaign finance reports for this election cycle will be filed for both federal and state candidates. Once those reports are filed I’ll get to work on updating the budgets for each race. That is a lot of work and takes a long time so it won’t happen right away.

Also now that the results are certified I may write some articles looking at the results in depth. There are a number of topics that interest me including following up on pre-election articles about the downstate vote, the Chicago vote (especially the African American vote in the Govenror’s race), the death of the Cook County suburbs as a reliable bellwether, the stronger than expected performance of some of the challengers in the down ballot statewide races, that razor thin Treasurer’s race, the competitive congressionals and turnout and vote share. I may not get to all of those topics or I may find that there is nothing new to add beyond what’s already apparent on the surface but for now those are the topics that interest me and seem likely to offer greater insights once looked at more closely.

Updating the Treasurer’s Race (cont.)

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Illinois Treasurer’s Race Tracker

UPDATE: 11/18 (10:00pm)

Final update for the night:

The Chicago numbers came in just before 9pm and as expected it boosted Frerichs lead by over 6,000 votes. I did a complete check of all the election authorities again and the only other update was Marion County. On my tracker I still have not yet confirmed the final totals for 50 of the state’s 110 election authorities. Of that number 14 don’t have websites and the other 36 just haven’t updated their websites yet with final totals.

The current margin is Frerichs by 9,439 votes.

Reminder: I will be traveling all day tomorrow for work and won’t be near a computer probably at all so I will have no new updates for you. I gave Rich Miller and his intern access to the Google Doc that powers the tracker so they may make updates or they may not. Either way I’ll find some time on Thursday to update what I can.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/18 (6:30pm)

Here’s where things stand right now. I have checked every publicly available source of election results since 5pm. As of this writing Frerichs has a lead of 3,259 votes but 52 of the state’s 110 election authorities have not yet published what is clearly a final update. You can see which counties updated here.

The City of Chicago still has not updated, which is expected to produce a notable margin for Frerichs. The Cook County suburbs did make an update of 8,314 votes and Frerichs net gain there was 2,263 votes.

The most surprising news of the day came in the collar counties. In the 5 traditional collar counties overall Cross beat Frerichs 57%-38%. I expected that the updates in the 5 collar counties would give Cross the net gains he would need to keep this race close. That was not the case.

We haven’t had a public update in McHenry County since 11/5 and did not get one so far today. DuPage had a large public update on 11/5 as well, both producing large margins for Cross. However in today’s updates it was Frerichs who came out with a net gain in Lake and Will (472 and 376 votes respectively) while Cross’ net gain today in DuPage was only 48 votes. The Kane County part outside of Aurora updated last night Cross gained 215 votes while the Aurora election authority update today gave a net gain to Frerichs of 235 votes. In these most recent collar county updates it was Frerichs who had a net gain, when I was expecting a large net gain for Tom Cross.

In the overall statewide vote the 5 collar counties made up 25% of the vote in this race, while the Cook County suburbs made up 19% of the total vote. Cross needed gains in the collar counties to blunt the gains by Frerichs in Cook County and what is expected in Chicago. Unless McHenry comes in with a very large update, that didn’t happen.

This race has had many surprising developments. Now Tom Cross is going to need to find votes in surprising places to make up the current deficit.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/18 (10:00am)

I will update what I can when I can today. Keep track of which counties updated here.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/17 (9:00pm)

Here is what to expect for tomorrow and Wednesday. I expect the clerks will finalize and update the vote totals in each election authority tomorrow. The clerks will still have to complete the canvass and the totals won’t yet be certified but at least we won’t be expecting any further updates unless errors are found.

Technically the clerks have to wait to make sure no additional ballots come in the mail tomorrow so the updates are more likely to come later in the day. I will take a late lunch and check for updates during my lunch and then again after work.

On Wednesday I have to travel for work and will not be able to check for updates at all. I have given Rich Miller and his intern access to the Google Doc that is keeping track of these totals so they can make updates if needed.

Also, if you need to get updates faster anyone can copy/paste the data at the bottom of my tracker where it is listed by election authority and perform their own checks.

To make it easier to quickly see which totals are final I have them color coded. All the numbers for each election authority in blue are not yet final, the numbers in black are the numbers that are expected to be final.

For previous updates I’ve written a little blurb after each one explaining the update. Here is that history in table format. Since almost all 110 election authorities are expected to have an update in the next day or two I probably won’t write up each one, I am going to try to keep this table up to date and just reference the table.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/17 (6:30pm)

First, thank you to Macoupin County Clerk Pete Duncan for emailing me his final county totals, that was very helpful. Second, if you look at the very bottom of the tracker where the vote totals by election authority are listed you’ll notice that many figures are in blue. Anything in blue is not yet confirmed as final, anything in black is assumed to be final pending the canvassing and certification.

I called the 5 counties today that I promised on Friday I would. I also rechecked all the election authorities tonight, here are 12 updates:

  • DeWitt County – there were a total of 5 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 4 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Jasper County – there were a total of 4 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 4 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Marshall County – there were a total of 10 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 4 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Pope County – there were a total of 3 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 1 vote. These should be their final totals.
  • Richland County – there were a total of 29 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 9 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Macoupin County – there were a total of 79 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and it was a push, the margin remains exactly the same. These should be their final totals.
  • Bond County – there were a total of 2 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 2 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Morgan County – there were a total of 123 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 41 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Pike County – there were a total of 4 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 3 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Fayette County – there were a total of 26 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 11 votes. These should be their final totals.
  • Kane (only, not including Aurora) – there were a total of 382 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Cross gained 215 votes. I’m not sure if these are their final totals.
  • Vermilion (only, not including Danville) – there were a total of 81 new votes over what was previously publicly reported and Frerichs gained 1 vote. These should be their final totals.

The current margin is now Tom Cross by 674 votes.

End of Update.

Updating the Treasurer’s Race

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Illinois Treasurer’s Race Tracker

UPDATE: 11/10 (6:30pm)

Ok, I went through all of the election authorities that have a website and data, here are the updates:

  • Kane County – there are 241 new votes over what was previously reported and Mike Frerichs had a net gain of 50 votes.
  • Logan County – There are 337 new votes over what was previously reported and Tom Cross had a net gain of 148 votes.
  • Ogle County – there is 1 new vote over what was previously reported and it went to Cross so a net gain of 1 vote for Cross.

Tomorrow is a holiday so I wouldn’t expect many updates. I’ll keep an eye on Cook, Chicago and the various collar counties just in case.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/10 (2:30pm)

Just checked Cook and Chicago and Cook had an update. There are 1,244 new votes over what was previously reported and Mike Frerichs had a net gain of 254. The margin now stands at Cross with a lead of 393 votes.

I’ll check all of the election authorities for updates tonight when I get home from work.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/10 (8:00am)

Before work this morning I double checked Chicago, Cook, Lake, McHenry, DuPage, Kane, Aurora, Will, Winnebago and Rockford. The only update was in Kane where there were 1,314 new votes over what was previously reported and Tom Cross had a net gain of 1 vote.

I’ll check all of the election authorities for updates tonight when I get home from work.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/9 (10:30pm)

I haven’t looked through all of the various election authorities to see if there are any additional updates, it being the weekend I wasn’t expecting any, but I got a text from Rich Miller tonight telling me there were new Chicago numbers and he’s right so I have updated the tracker. The City of Chicago added just shy of 14,000 votes to their already reported totals and Frerichs netted a little more than 8,500 of them. The difference is now down to a very slim lead for Tom Cross of 646 votes.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/7 (6:30pm)

Today’s updates:

  • City of Rockford – they added 423 votes to their existing totals, Frerichs had a net gain of 164 votes.
  • Cook County Suburbs – they added 7,454 votes to their existing totals, Frerichs had a net gain of 2,029 votes.

End of Update.


UPDATE: 11/6 (11pm)

I went to all the election authority websites again tonight and updated any data that was new in the tracker. Here’s a summary of what’s new:

  • City of Chicago – they finally included the last 6 uncounted precincts in their totals, they now have 100% precincts reporting. It appears that the City of Chicago totals only show regular votes, it doesn’t appear they have vote by mail votes or any provisionals (including same day registration) counted. See more on that here. Frerichs had a net gain here of 1,171 votes.
  • Cook County Suburbs – they added a little over 6,500 votes to their existing numbers, I’m guessing these were vote by mail ballots. Frerichs had a net gain here of 1,509 votes.
  • Jackson County – they added almost 1,700 votes to their existing numbers, Frerichs had a net gain of 53 votes.
  • City of Rockford – they added about 600 votes to their existing totals, Frerichs had a net gain of 231 votes.
  • Ogle County – they added 4 votes to their existing totals, Frerichs had a net gain of 2.

I had heard that Will County was supposed to have some updated numbers, which most likely would have added to Cross’ advantage but they haven’t updated anything yet.

Also here are a few known issues:

  • Fulton County – I went to check to see if there was any update and tonight I couldn’t find a link to their totals. Not sure if I am just missing it or what. I swear it was there last night.
  • Jersey County – I am still using the AP’s numbers here. The numbers they have listed on their website are so small they can’t be right. The AP’s numbers are consistent with historical norms, the numbers they have listed just seem like there has to be an error. I’ll keep an eye on this.
  • Marshall County – their website was down tonight and displaying a server error.
  • 20 Small Counties – all the data in pink on the tracker is still just what the AP reported for these 20 small counties. Most of them don’t even have a county website so short of calling them all I can’t verify the AP’s reported numbers.

End of Update.


Illinois Treasurer’s Race Tracker

As of right now the tracker shows Tom Cross with a 14,373 vote lead. There are still 6 precincts in the City of Chicago that have not reported, all the rest in the state are in.

These are the six Chicago precincts left to report:
08-14
15-08
31-22
33-14
34-11
43-02

However that doesn’t tell the whole story, there are still many additional uncounted votes, I’m just not sure how many. The Illinois Attorney General instructed election authorities that they could not count any of the early vote or vote by mail until after 7pm on election night. It used to be that the first results you would see on election night were the early voting numbers because those were counted in advance, but not anymore because they were instructed that they could not count them in advance.

So even though 109 of the 110 election authorities are showing 100% of their precincts reporting we are still likely to see the vote totals increase as more votes are counted. These are the three types of votes that may still need to be counted:

  1. Early Vote votes – these should be the easiest/quickest to count and may already have been counted in most jurisdictions but I can’t say for sure.
  2. Vote by Mail votes – I’m told that in the larger election authorities these didn’t even start to get counted until yesterday at the earliest for some and not yet at all for others, also because of the mail these may still be coming in. As long as they were postmarked by Monday 11/3 the election authorities can still accept them up until 11/18. Also, since they were not allowed to open and count these in advance there are some election authorities that are still counting them.
  3. Provisional Ballot votes – this includes same day registration votes, and we saw the long lines for these votes in the City of Chicago as the last voters weren’t done until 3am. Also, there were reports of voters in Chicago who had registered recently having to fill out provisional ballots. Typically provisional ballots do not have a high success rate but it seems that there will be some valid provisional votes that need to be counted.

The problem is that of the vote totals currently publicly available you cannot tell which of the three types of potentially uncounted votes above are included or not included in the totals and it will vary by election authority.

For example, yesterday Chicago reported 17 of their 23 uncounted precincts (only 6 remaining) and Frerichs picked up a 4,800 vote advantage. Chicago appeared to only be updating election day votes, not mail or provisional votes.

Then late last night the Cook County Board of Elections updated their numbers even though they had already been reporting 100% of the precincts reporting and Frerichs gained another 1,100 vote advantage. Also at some point both DuPage and McHenry added votes to their totals over what was in the AP’s election night totals and Cross picked up advantages of 3,680 and 4,891 respectively. I’m assuming that most of these are Vote by Mail votes but I don’t know for sure.

I’m lead to believe that Chicago is still only counting election night votes, they haven’t updated vote by mail votes and provisionals but I can’t say for sure.

Additionally, it’s hard to say for sure that the many counties throughout the state that are counting additional votes are making the updated data available on their websites. It’s customary for these areas to have some data available on election night that are unofficial results and then they don’t update the data again until after the numbers are official in about a month. Not every area has the sophisticated IT systems that you typically see in the bigger counties so the quality of the information varies. In fact, for about 20 election authorities the only data we have is what the AP reported on election night because some of the smaller counties don’t even have a website at all.

CHECK MY WORK:
Here’s how my tracker works, start by scrolling all the way to the bottom. You’ll see the data for all 110 election authorities listed there. Every report above this raw data on my tracker is just an aggregation of this raw data. This is the data that I went and entered manually after looking up every EA’s website last night. It was manual data entry so it’s always possible that I typed something wrong or accidentally transposed Cross’ and Frerichs’ numbers in one county or another, but I ran a number of checks to see that the math came out right and it appears that it did. Also, you’ll see a URL for most of these election authorities, you can follow those links to lookup the publicly available vote totals in each area. If you see one that has different data or more updated data than what’s in the tracker let me know and I’ll update the numbers. The numbers listed in pink are for the election authorities that have no publicly available data, in most cases they don’t even have a website so the pink numbers are the numbers that the AP was reporting on election night. I can’t verify that these pink numbers are accurate, it’s just the only numbers we have.

But for now this is the most up to date count I know of anywhere. I have a day job that I can’t neglect but I’ll try to keep the info as current as possible, if you see anything new send a note here.

P.S. Projected Vote Totals:
On my tracker it’s best to just ignore the Projected Vote total numbers. Those calculations can’t account for uncounted vote when 100% of the precincts are reporting, those are only useful for election night when only part of the vote is in. Please don’t assume that they are projecting what the mail and provisional votes might be, they are not.

Constitutional Office Candidates Current Cash Position (beta)

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Constitutional Office Candidates Current Cash Position (beta)

A-1 Totals by Committee by Date (beta)

Thanks to the wonderful efforts of the DataMade team at Election Money who have made the Illinois State Board of Elections campaign finance data far more usable I have attempted my first crack at creating a (somewhat) current dashboard for the current cash position of each of the major party candidates for constitutional office. Please send me your feedback including any suggestions for new dashboards. My hope is to do the same for the State House and State Senate races and also look at some of the outside money PACs that file with the Illinois SBE. Here are some notes:

  • Data Currency: My server automatically copies the files from Election Money every night at 1am. They update their contribution data daily (usually in the evenings) and their candidate listings, committee listings and report summaries are updated weekly. The A-1 totals listed here should be current to within about 24-36 hours.
  • Data Depth: So far I have only been downloading the 2014 contribution data so if you try searching for A-1 totals prior to 2014 that data isn’t available yet. I’ll include the historical data once I know everything is working correctly.
  • I hope to eventually be able to add the debt total (line 9) from the most recent Quarterly report but it is not available yet. When describing a campaign’s Cash on Hand you should be sure to take into account both their investment total and their debt.
  • Remember that the Net Funds Available does not take into account any spending figures since the last quarterly reporting period. Committees are required to file A-1 reports in the interim that list their large contributions received but the only time any expenditure info is reported is on the quarterly reports. The Net Funds Available figure is the sum of the last quarterly report CoH, last quarterly report investment total, subsequent A-1 reports individual contributions and transfers in.
  • The data shown here is only from the candidates’ principal campaign committee. Prior to the introduction of contribution limits in 2011 campaigns/candidates often had multiple committees but now they are limited to one committee per office. Outside PACs can spend funds in support or opposition for these candidates but they are not allowed to coordinate that spending or effort with the candidates or their committees.

Constitutional Office Candidates Current Cash Position (beta)

A-1 Totals by Committee by Date (beta)

Updated Data: 2014 Illinois Primary Results

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I mentioned this on Twitter but forgot to update the front page. All of the 2014 Illinois primary data has been completely updated. All of the vote total analysis in the ANALYSIS section is up to date as well as the MAPS and even the ELECTIONS page profiles. If you’re interested in the primary postmortem scroll down below, it turns out our election night numbers were pretty accurate and all the items held up when compared to the actual certified vote totals.

New Section: ELECTIONS

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This website has a lot of data stored about various elections, for example you can find performance maps in the MAPS section as well as campaign budget information in the BUDGETS section. I wanted to create an easily navigated quick glance section by race for this data to make the data easier to find and use. Now there is a new section called ELECTIONS. Click on each of the pages below to find a quick glance page for each of the constitutional offices in Illinois with direct links to map and budget data.

Statewide Profile

Constitutional Offices

Federal Offices

Congressional Offices (2012 – 2022 Map)

Congressional Offices (2002 – 2012 Map)

Statewide Primary Election Maps Now Available

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Maps for statewide primary elections are now available in the MAPS section. A direct link can be found here.

You can find performance maps for every Democratic and Republican primary candidate for statewide office going back to at least 2002 and many races from 1994-2000 are also available. You can see maps by county, by Cook County township and/or by Chicago ward.

I’m pretty happy with this development as now this website can display all of the statewide maps I’ve had in my files and had hoped to include.

Updated Data: All Maps (by Candidate)

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You can now see MAPS for all candidates in an election instead of just one. I’m very, very happy to be able to share this latest update, this was something that really bothered me from the day this site went live almost a year ago. Even now the Google software used to generate these maps is officially listed as “experimental” so it should come as no surprise that certain functionality was limited or unavailable when I first launched this site but unfortunately the only workaround would have involved an incredibly labor intensive process so I just waited. Now I’m very happy to be able to visually display all of the data I wanted.

Previously for each race that MAPS were available you could only see the map for one candidate in each race, you could at best then infer how the opposition performed but the limitation was frustrating. Now you can see the performance map for all the candidates. So for example if you happen to remember that in 2006 the Rockford Register Star was fed up with the Democratic and Republican candidates for Governor and instead endorsed Green Party candidate Rich Whitney you can look at this map and see what effect that endorsement had.

So far all the map data has been for general elections only but now I can and will add all the statewide primaries. That will probably take a few weeks (I just do this in my spare time) but I want to have it done before the NHL playoffs start and I’m sure March Madness will make it harder to find some free time.

After I get the statewide primary maps up I’d like to add more to the Chicago Aldermanic data set. The 2011 elections are already in there but I’ve always been meaning to add 2007 and 2003. So that’s the update plan for now. As always I hope you find this information useful. Let me know if you find any errors or have any requests.

Updated Data: Campaign Budget Reports

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A little late but as promised I have updated the BUDGETS section. I had previously made available monthly fundraising and spending budgets (along with monthly payroll and weekly media buys) for about 12 competitive Illinois congressional races in the last few cycles. I had promised to update that report library with the 6 competitive congressional races from the 2012 cycle as well as go back and create the same reports for statewide races.

In order to produce these reports I downloaded the transaction data from the electronically filed reports of the candidates and then went through them line by line and assigned them to their proper budget section. Now not only are the latest congressional races included but I included every major party candidate for constitutional office (Gov, Lt. Gov, AG, SOS, Comptroller and Treasurer) from the 2010, 2006 and 2002 cycles (roughly 75 candidates). Further I created some quick glance tables in case you just want to look at the overall total raised/spent, and I put the entire database of transactions online. If you want to query all of the individual transactions I used to create these reports you can now copy that data for your own files and use it to build your own custom reports.

Even if you consider yourself a political junkie you may not find this part of the site particularly useful. It is really most helpful for campaign staffers who have to manage their campaign budget, usually just a campaign manager and/or an operations director. But for the candidates and staffers responsible for creating a campaign budget and managing the campaign’s spending decisions this data is almost invaluable and will save you hours while trying to figure out how other past campaigns have managed the same challenges.

The data includes three types of reports, 1) monthly campaign budgets; 2) monthly payroll budgets and 3) weekly general election paid media (mostly/usually television). There are a number of reasons this information can be useful. If you are running your campaign well you are going to try to keep your payroll and operating costs to a bare minimum, but it is helpful to know just how low you can reasonably keep those operating expenses and it’s valuable to see when other campaigns started hiring employees and/or incurring expenses.

Another issue that financial planners struggle with is figuring out how much your campaign will be able to spend on paid media and when to start spending. It’s helpful to see when other comparable races started their paid communication and it’s very helpful to see how comparable campaigns did in their fundraising in the final weeks/months of the campaign. You will almost certainly start spending your paid media budget before knowing how much money will still come in during the remainder of the campaign. You will have to make some estimates/predictions and you are going to want to base those estimates on comparable data if possible.

Campaign Raised/Spent Quick Glance

Here you will find quick glance tables listing the amount raised and spent during the election cycle for every statewide campaign and the key congressional races in my database.

Campaign Budget Reports

Here you will find monthly campaign budget reports, monthly payroll reports and weekly (fall) media buy reports for every statewide campaign and key recent congressional campaigns.

Campaign Budget Database

You may be curious about the individual transactions that were aggregated to assemble these campaign budget reports. Here you can query the database of individual transactions I used to build these reports including the various data fields I appended when I went through these transactions line by line. Every bit of data I have is available here. With this data you can build your own custom reports to suit your needs.

Like any other data set this one has limitations and caveats so if you’re planning to study this highly specialized data it’s probably worth your time to be aware of the additional information provided in the FAQ.

Updated Data: 2012 Targeted IL Congressionals

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As promised I have the updated quick glance and scorecards for the 6 targeted congressional districts in Illinois with the exception of some of the data in IL-17. The Peoria and Tazewell county clerks have not yet published their precinct-level election returns for 2012GE so I haven’t yet been able to pull the Presidential race and turnout info for that district, I’ll update everything once that data is available. Since everything else was ready I saw no need to delay publishing this. As always, you can find this data in the VOTE ANALYSIS section.

Take a look at the table below. The first three column in the table show the Dem Perf/Rep Perf/Diff for the congressional race and then the last three columns show the Dem Perf/Rep Perf/Diff for the Presidential race:

Cong D Cong R Diff   Obama Romney Diff
IL-08 54.74% 45.26% D +09.48   57.35% 40.97% D +16.38
IL-10 50.63% 49.37% D +01.25   57.47% 41.19% D +16.28
IL-11 58.39% 41.31% D +17.08   57.32% 40.95% D +16.37
IL-12 51.65% 42.74% D +08.91   49.62% 48.17% D +01.44
IL-13 46.21% 46.55% R +00.34   48.26% 49.19% R +00.93
IL-17 53.28% 46.72% D +06.55   N/A N/A N/A

A few things jump out at me:

  • In IL-08 Obama did about two and a half points better than Duckworth while Walsh did more than 4 points better than Romney. As you can see from the Obama statewide numbers he may have done poorly downstate but he was surprisingly strong in the collar counties.
  • In IL-10 Obama was almost 7 points better than Schneider and Dold was more than 8 points better than Romney. As previously noted Obama ran well in the suburbs but it’s also hard not to conclude that Dold just ran very well as a Republican in a Democrat-friendly district.
  • In IL-11 there was little difference between the congressional race and the presidential race, Foster ran about a point stronger than Obama while Biggert was about four tenths of a point stronger than Romney. The two races basically mirrored each other so it doesn’t appear any of the four candidates enjoyed a local advantage.
  • I previously noted that Obama ran much poorer than Democratic State Senate candidates in downstate districts, particularly in the southern half of the state so it’s no surprise that in IL-12 Enyart was 2 points stronger than Obama, however it is somewhat a surprise that Plummer ran about five and a half points worse than Romney. While Enyart didn’t get into the race until well after the primary when the Democratic nominee withdrew Plummer was the early choice of the local party faithful, was independently wealthy and came from a family with strong business ties to the area so he was expected to be a strong contender for this seat but for whatever reason he didn’t perform up to expectations. Plummer lost his race by almost 9 points in a district Obama only won by about a point and a half. Maybe it wasn’t winnable for Plummer if Romney couldn’t best Obama who struggled downstate but I’m still surprised this wasn’t closer.
  • IL-13 was the closest of the targeted races for both the congressional race and the presidential race. Most notable about this race was that independent 3rd party candidate John Hartman from Edwardsville took 7.24% of the vote in a race where Republican Rodney Davis edged Democrat David Gill by 0.34% overall. The presidential race wasn’t much different, Romney edged Obama by just under a point. This was the most Republican leaning of the 6 targeted congressional districts so it’s no surprise that this was the district where the Republicans performed the best.
  • I noted previously that Obama ran particularly well in the Quad Cities media market where some of the northwestern Illinois counties were exposed to the same advertising that voters in eastern Iowa saw. I don’t yet have districtwide totals for the presidential race because two election authorities don’t yet have their precinct-level vote totals published but if you look at the counties that we do have data for you’ll notice that it appears that Obama ran much stronger than Bustos did, and Bustos won her race by six and half points. This strong showing at the top of the ticket helps explain why Democratic State Senator Mike Jacobs was able to win reelection by almost 10 points in the 36th senate district despite pre-election polls that showed him far behind.

For quick comparison by district to past races here’s the Quick Glance:

IL-08 IL-10 IL-11 IL-12 IL-13 IL-17 Statewide
12CONG D +09.48 D +01.25 D +17.08 D +08.91 R +00.34 D +06.55  
12PRES D +16.38 D +16.28 D +16.37 D +01.44 R +00.93   D +16.87
10SEN R +11.33 R +12.79 R +06.28 R +08.52 R +18.72 R +14.84 R +01.59
10GOV R +07.64 R +00.93 R +03.96 R +06.08 R +19.99 R +14.59 D +00.69
10AG D +27.10 D +30.96 D +29.26 D +19.73 D +18.25 D +22.90 D +33.07
10SOS D +39.33 D +41.61 D +41.56 D +27.14 D +28.91 D +33.39 D +42.85
10COMP R +26.34 R +21.08 R +18.49 R +10.04 R +24.79 R +16.74 R +11.74
10TREAS R +19.11 R +13.19 R +12.39 R +04.70 R +19.97 R +09.76 R +04.42
08PRES D +21.18 D +25.57 D +21.32 D +10.99 D +09.31 D +19.37 D +25.14
08SEN D +34.08 D +37.08 D +33.53 D +30.06 D +29.97 D +35.27 D +39.31
06GOV   D +08.28   D +14.74   D +08.31 D +10.55
06AG   D +51.06   D +33.62   D +32.84 D +48.20
06SOS   D +32.87   D +24.01   D +24.23 D +29.79
06COMP   D +30.45   D +27.21   D +27.33 D +32.76
06TREAS   D +09.18   D +11.67   D +10.53 D +12.70
04PRES       D +02.57   D +06.20 D +10.34
04SEN       D +33.15   D +38.42 D +42.92

And as always you can find the full scorecards for each district by clicking on VOTE ANALYSIS on the top toolbar and then scrolling down to “Congressional District Analysis” or just follow this direct link.

If you find an error or you think something might be wrong let me know. In order to compile this data I have to aggregate data from many different sources and then try and format it so that it all fits together. There’s a lot of copying and pasting involved and even though I check and doublecheck for mistakes they’re still pretty easy to make.