While speaking to fellow Republicans at the State Fair this morning Governor Rauner announced his intention to try to win 9 seats in the State House next year. In 2016 the Republicans had a net pickup of four seats in the House and there are now 67 Democrats and 51 Republicans, the GOP would need to pick up 9 seats to win the majority in the House.
State House
Here are two lists side by side, one is a list of all the State House districts currently held by Democrats from most to least Republican and the other is a list of all districts currently held by Republicans from most to least Democratic.
| District | Incumbent | Party | Rank |
|---|
| 116th HD | Jerry Costello, II | D | 1 |
| 118th HD | Brandon W. Phelps | D | 2 |
| 112th HD | Katie Stuart | D | 3 |
| 111th HD | Daniel V. Beiser | D | 4 |
| 62nd HD | Sam Yingling | D | 5 |
| 56th HD | Michelle Mussman | D | 6 |
| 55th HD | Martin J. Moylan | D | 7 |
| 96th HD | Sue Scherer | D | 8 |
| 58th HD | Scott Drury | D | 9 |
| 57th HD | Elaine Nekritz | D | 10 |
| 59th HD | Carol Sente | D | 11 |
| 46th HD | Deb Conroy | D | 12 |
| 84th HD | Stephanie A. Kifowit | D | 13 |
| 113th HD | Jay Hoffman | D | 14 |
| 72nd HD | Michael Halpin | D | 15 |
| 98th HD | Natalie A. Manley | D | 16 |
| 114th HD | LaToya Greenwood | D | 17 |
| 44th HD | Fred Crespo | D | 18 |
| 35th HD | Frances Ann Hurley | D | 19 |
| 17th HD | Laura Fine | D | 20 |
| 92nd HD | Jehan Gordon-Booth | D | 21 |
| 36th HD | Kelly M. Burke | D | 22 |
| 43rd HD | Anna Moeller | D | 23 |
| 15th HD | John C. D'Amico | D | 24 |
| 85th HD | Emily McAsey | D | 25 |
| 77th HD | Kathleen Willis | D | 26 |
| 67th HD | Litesa E. Wallace | D | 27 |
| 80th HD | Anthony DeLuca | D | 28 |
| 18th HD | Robyn Gabel | D | 29 |
| 19th HD | Robert Martwick | D | 30 |
| 86th HD | Lawrence Walsh, Jr. | D | 31 |
| 83rd HD | Linda Chapa LaVia | D | 32 |
| 103rd HD | Carol Ammons | D | 33 |
| 23rd HD | Michael J. Zalewski | D | 34 |
| 16th HD | Lou Lang | D | 35 |
| 11th HD | Ann M. Williams | D | 36 |
| 12th HD | Sara Feigenholtz | D | 37 |
| 60th HD | Rita Mayfield | D | 38 |
| 21st HD | Silvana Tabares | D | 39 |
| 24th HD | Elizabeth Hernandez | D | 40 |
| 22nd HD | Michael J. Madigan | D | 41 |
| 38th HD | Al Riley | D | 42 |
| 7th HD | Emanuel Chris Welch | D | 43 |
| 78th HD | Camille Y. Lilly | D | 44 |
| 34th HD | Elgie R. Sims, Jr. | D | 45 |
| 3rd HD | Luis Arroyo | D | 46 |
| 28th HD | Robert Rita | D | 47 |
| 40th HD | Jaime M. Andrade, Jr. | D | 48 |
| 31st HD | Mary E. Flowers | D | 49 |
| 27th HD | Justin Slaughter | D | 50 |
| 30th HD | William Davis | D | 51 |
| 39th HD | Will Guzzardi | D | 52 |
| 2nd HD | Theresa Mah | D | 53 |
| 29th HD | Thaddeus Jones | D | 54 |
| 13th HD | Gregory Harris | D | 55 |
| 8th HD | La Shawn K. Ford | D | 56 |
| 1st HD | Daniel J. Burke | D | 57 |
| 9th HD | Arthur Turner | D | 58 |
| 4th HD | Cynthia Soto | D | 59 |
| 5th HD | Juliana Stratton | D | 60 |
| 26th HD | Christian L. Mitchell | D | 61 |
| 6th HD | Sonya M. Harper | D | 62 |
| 14th HD | Kelly M. Cassidy | D | 63 |
| 32nd HD | André Thapedi | D | 64 |
| 10th HD | Melissa Conyears-Ervin | D | 65 |
| 33rd HD | Marcus C. Evans, Jr. | D | 66 |
| 25th HD | Barbara Flynn Currie | D | 67 |
|
| District | Incumbent | Party | Rank |
|---|
| 20th HD | Michael P. McAuliffe | R | 1 |
| 76th HD | Jerry Lee Long | R | 2 |
| 71st HD | Tony McCombie | R | 3 |
| 91st HD | Michael D. Unes | R | 4 |
| 61st HD | Sheri Jesiel | R | 5 |
| 79th HD | Lindsay Parkhurst | R | 6 |
| 53rd HD | David Harris | R | 7 |
| 81st HD | David S. Olsen | R | 8 |
| 48th HD | Peter Breen | R | 9 |
| 93rd HD | Norine K. Hammond | R | 10 |
| 104th HD | Chad Hays | R | 11 |
| 49th HD | Mike Fortner | R | 12 |
| 115th HD | Terri Bryant | R | 13 |
| 54th HD | Thomas Morrison | R | 14 |
| 97th HD | Mark Batinick | R | 15 |
| 45th HD | Christine Winger | R | 16 |
| 68th HD | John M. Cabello | R | 17 |
| 70th HD | Robert W. Pritchard | R | 18 |
| 41st HD | Grant Wehrli | R | 19 |
| 66th HD | Allen Skillicorn | R | 20 |
| 95th HD | Avery Bourne | R | 21 |
| 74th HD | Daniel Swanson | R | 22 |
| 63rd HD | Steven Reick | R | 23 |
| 75th HD | David A. Welter | R | 24 |
| 65th HD | Steven A. Andersson | R | 25 |
| 117th HD | Dave Severin | R | 26 |
| 99th HD | Sara Wojcicki Jimenez | R | 27 |
| 42nd HD | Jeanne M Ives | R | 28 |
| 64th HD | Barbara Wheeler | R | 29 |
| 52nd HD | David McSweeney | R | 30 |
| 47th HD | Patricia R. Bellock | R | 31 |
| 37th HD | Margo McDermed | R | 32 |
| 50th HD | Keith R. Wheeler | R | 33 |
| 82nd HD | Jim Durkin | R | 34 |
| 69th HD | Joe Sosnowski | R | 35 |
| 105th HD | Dan Brady | R | 36 |
| 51st HD | Nick Sauer | R | 37 |
| 90th HD | Tom Demmer | R | 38 |
| 89th HD | Brian W. Stewart | R | 39 |
| 88th HD | Keith P. Sommer | R | 40 |
| 100th HD | C.D. Davidsmeyer | R | 41 |
| 87th HD | Tim Butler | R | 42 |
| 73rd HD | Ryan Spain | R | 43 |
| 94th HD | Randy E. Frese | R | 44 |
| 110th HD | Reginald Phillips | R | 45 |
| 101st HD | Bill Mitchell | R | 46 |
| 102nd HD | Brad Halbrook | R | 47 |
| 107th HD | John Cavaletto | R | 48 |
| 108th HD | Charles Meier | R | 49 |
| 106th HD | Thomas M. Bennett | R | 50 |
| 109th HD | David B. Reis | R | 51 |
|
State Senate
Here are two lists side by side, one is a list of all the State Senate districts currently held by Democrats from most to least Republican and the other is a list of all districts currently held by Republicans from most to least Democratic. The Senate currently has 37 Democrats and 22 Republicans, the Republicans would need to pick up 8 seats to win the majority.
| District | Incumbent | Party | Rank | Note |
|---|
| 48th SD | Andy Manar | D | 1 | |
| 56th SD | William R. Haine | D | 2 | |
| 23rd SD | Thomas Cullerton | D | 3 | |
| 31st SD | Melinda Bush | D | 4 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 49th SD | Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant | D | 5 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 34th SD | Steve Stadelman | D | 6 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 28th SD | Laura M. Murphy | D | 7 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 52nd SD | Scott M. Bennett | D | 8 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 46th SD | David Koehler | D | 9 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 29th SD | Julie A. Morrison | D | 10 | |
| 40th SD | Toi W. Hutchinson | D | 11 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 57th SD | James F. Clayborne, Jr. | D | 12 | |
| 10th SD | John G. Mulroe | D | 13 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 19th SD | Michael E. Hastings | D | 14 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 42nd SD | Linda Holmes | D | 15 | |
| 22nd SD | Cristina Castro | D | 16 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 18th SD | Bill Cunningham | D | 17 | |
| 9th SD | Daniel Biss | D | 18 | |
| 30th SD | Terry Link | D | 19 | |
| 43rd SD | Pat McGuire | D | 20 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 8th SD | Ira I. Silverstein | D | 21 | |
| 6th SD | John J. Cullerton | D | 22 | |
| 12th SD | Steven M. Landek | D | 23 | |
| 39th SD | Don Harmon | D | 24 | |
| 11th SD | Martin A. Sandoval | D | 25 | |
| 14th SD | Emil Jones, III | D | 26 | |
| 4th SD | Kimberly A. Lightford | D | 27 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 20th SD | Iris Y. Martinez | D | 28 | |
| 2nd SD | Omar Aquino | D | 29 | |
| 15th SD | Napoleon Harris, III | D | 30 | |
| 1st SD | Antonio Muñoz | D | 31 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 16th SD | Jacqueline Y. Collins | D | 32 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 17th SD | Donne E. Trotter | D | 33 | |
| 7th SD | Heather A. Steans | D | 34 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 3rd SD | Mattie Hunter | D | 35 | |
| 5th SD | Patricia Van Pelt | D | 36 | |
| 13th SD | Kwame Raoul | D | 37 | (Not on Ballot) |
|
| District | Incumbent | Party | Rank | |
|---|
| 36th SD | Neil Anderson | R | 1 | |
| 38th SD | Sue Rezin | R | 2 | |
| 27th SD | Tom Rooney | R | 3 | |
| 24th SD | Chris Nybo | R | 4 | |
| 58th SD | Paul Schimpf | R | 5 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 41st SD | Christine Radogno | R | 6 | |
| 21st SD | Michael Connelly | R | 7 | |
| 33rd SD | Karen McConnaughay | R | 8 | |
| 25th SD | Jim Oberweis | R | 9 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 59th SD | Dale Fowler | R | 10 | |
| 32nd SD | Pamela J. Althoff | R | 11 | |
| 35th SD | Dave Syverson | R | 12 | |
| 47th SD | Jil Tracy | R | 13 | |
| 26th SD | Dan McConchie | R | 14 | |
| 50th SD | Wm. Sam McCann | R | 15 | |
| 37th SD | Chuck Weaver | R | 16 | (Not on Ballot) |
| 45th SD | Tim Bivins | R | 17 | |
| 44th SD | William E. Brady | R | 18 | |
| 53rd SD | Jason A. Barickman | R | 19 | |
| 51st SD | Chapin Rose | R | 20 | |
| 54th SD | Kyle McCarter | R | 21 | |
| 55th SD | Dale A. Righter | R | 22 | (Not on Ballot) |
|
Congress
Here are two lists side by side, one is a list of all the Illinois Congressional districts currently held by Democrats from most to least Republican and the other is a list of all districts currently held by Republicans from most to least Democratic.
| District | Incumbent | Party | Rank |
|---|
| 17th CD | Cheri Bustos | D | 1 |
| 8th CD | Raja Krishnamoorthi | D | 2 |
| 10th CD | Brad Schneider | D | 3 |
| 11th CD | Bill Foster | D | 4 |
| 3rd CD | Dan Lipinski | D | 5 |
| 9th CD | Jan Schakowsky | D | 6 |
| 5th CD | Mike Quigley | D | 7 |
| 1st CD | Bobby Rush | D | 8 |
| 4th CD | Luis Gutierrez | D | 9 |
| 2nd CD | Robin Kelly | D | 10 |
| 7th CD | Danny Davis | D | 11 |
|
| District | Incumbent | Party | Rank |
|---|
| 12th CD | Mike Bost | R | 1 |
| 13th CD | Rodney Davis | R | 2 |
| 6th CD | Peter Roskam | R | 3 |
| 16th CD | Adam Kinzinger | R | 4 |
| 14th CD | Randy Hultgren | R | 5 |
| 18th CD | Darin LaHood | R | 6 |
| 15th CD | John Shimkus | R | 7 |
|
Methodology - I combined the vote totals by district for the 2012 race for President, 2014 races for US Senate, Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Comptroller and Treasurer and the 2016 races for US Senate and Comptroller and then ranked them. I did not include the 2016 Presidential because the regional voting patters by party were substantially different than typical and were a) not necessarily indicative of relative party strength and b) probably unique to the dynamics of that specific race.
