With so much attention being paid to the Treasurer's race and the ballots being counted/updated in Cook County you could be forgiven for thinking that Cook County is the only area where ballots are still being counted, it is not. All 102 counties (and all 110 election authorities) are still counting late arriving vote by mail ballots, same day registration ballots and valid provisional ballots. Both Cook County and the Chicago Board of Elections have been updating their totals as they count their ballots and they are also giving us some public updates about how many ballots they have left to count, which is why we are seeing so much discussion of their totals. But the truth is every county is going through the exact same process, most of them are just not updating their totals while they're doing it and they're not likely to give us any updates until 11/18 when they stop accepting vote by mail ballots.
Analyzing the difference between the Treasurer's race and the Governor's race is suffering from the same Cook County focus, the most significant portion of the explanation lies elsewhere. When you look at the unofficial totals in the Governor's race and the Treasurer's race you'll see:
- In Cook County Tom Cross underperformed Bruce Rauner by about 2 points while Mike Frerichs and Pat Quinn ran essentially the same, within 0.2% of each other. The difference in Cook County is the Libertarian candidate in the Treasurer's race got almost 2 points more than the Libertarian candidate in the Governor's race in Cook County and since Frerichs and Quinn received essentially the same percentage here this basically came out of Cross' pocket.
- In the 5 traditional collar counties Cross underperformed Rauner by almost 2.5 points while Frerichs did better than Quinn by a little more than half a point.
- In the downstate 96 counties the gap was the most pronounced, Cross underperformed Rauner by 3.5 points while Frerichs did better than Quinn by more than 4 points.
The difference maker in this race is downstate, not Cook County.
Here's a table that shows the difference between the party candidates for Treasurer and Governor (sorted by Republican underperformance):
| County | Dem | Rep | Lib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion | 22.24% | -19.05% | -3.19% |
| Adams | 14.46% | -13.41% | -1.06% |
| Douglas | 14.43% | -12.59% | -1.86% |
| Pike | 13.77% | -11.79% | -1.99% |
| Piatt | 13.01% | -11.43% | -1.59% |
| Champaign | 12.03% | -11.13% | -0.91% |
| Marion | 12.55% | -10.75% | -1.81% |
| White | 10.65% | -10.08% | -0.57% |
| Hancock | 11.81% | -9.58% | -2.23% |
| Ford | 11.28% | -9.54% | -1.72% |
| Moultrie | 9.84% | -8.33% | -1.52% |
| Iroquois | 9.10% | -8.26% | -0.84% |
| Gallatin | 9.98% | -8.19% | -1.80% |
| Calhoun | 9.88% | -8.11% | -1.76% |
| Edgar | 10.21% | -8.09% | -2.13% |
| Clinton | 8.79% | -8.08% | -0.71% |
| Kankakee | 7.03% | -7.65% | 0.62% |
| Wayne | 7.17% | -7.35% | 0.18% |
| Scott | 10.27% | -7.20% | -3.07% |
| Macoupin | 9.07% | -7.11% | -1.95% |
| Shelby | 9.78% | -7.07% | -2.72% |
| Jasper | 8.75% | -6.80% | -1.95% |
| Brown | 9.16% | -6.52% | -2.65% |
| Schuyler | 7.91% | -5.99% | -1.92% |
| Monroe | 5.50% | -5.92% | 0.42% |
| Pulaski | 8.08% | -5.80% | -2.28% |
| Jersey | 6.82% | -5.65% | -1.17% |
| Union | 7.07% | -5.57% | -1.51% |
| Henderson | 6.40% | -5.56% | -0.85% |
| Alexander | 9.44% | -5.48% | -3.96% |
| Franklin | 7.16% | -5.35% | -1.82% |
| Christian | 8.09% | -5.14% | -2.95% |
| Mason | 8.48% | -4.78% | -3.70% |
| Madison | 4.83% | -4.69% | -0.14% |
| Washington | 6.40% | -4.59% | -1.81% |
| McHenry | 2.56% | -4.56% | 1.99% |
| Macon | 5.50% | -4.53% | -0.97% |
| Greene | 6.72% | -4.52% | -2.21% |
| Edwards | 4.95% | -4.37% | -0.58% |
| Hamilton | 6.40% | -4.25% | -2.14% |
| Clay | 6.43% | -4.17% | -2.26% |
| Montgomery | 6.63% | -4.11% | -2.53% |
| Cumberland | 5.39% | -3.97% | -1.42% |
| Effingham | 5.04% | -3.94% | -1.10% |
| Bond | 5.27% | -3.80% | -1.46% |
| Stephenson | 3.89% | -3.62% | -0.27% |
| Lake | 1.95% | -3.53% | 1.58% |
| McDonough | 4.70% | -3.51% | -1.18% |
| St. Clair | 3.20% | -3.46% | 0.26% |
| Jefferson | 4.49% | -3.33% | -1.18% |
| DeWitt | 4.15% | -3.32% | -0.83% |
| Fayette | 5.23% | -3.17% | -2.06% |
| Randolph | 4.93% | -2.94% | -1.99% |
| Coles | 4.45% | -2.92% | -1.54% |
| Rock Island | 2.73% | -2.87% | 0.14% |
| Whiteside | 3.19% | -2.86% | -0.33% |
| Marshall | 4.57% | -2.85% | -1.72% |
| Perry | 4.34% | -2.79% | -1.54% |
| Clark | 4.76% | -2.78% | -1.99% |
| Mercer | 3.73% | -2.72% | -1.00% |
| Kane | 0.62% | -2.34% | 1.72% |
| DuPage | 0.32% | -2.32% | 2.00% |
| Wabash | 2.10% | -2.24% | 0.15% |
| DeKalb | 0.71% | -2.22% | 1.51% |
| Fulton | 4.95% | -2.15% | -2.80% |
| Henry | 2.64% | -2.06% | -0.58% |
| LaSalle | 1.19% | -2.01% | 0.82% |
| Winnebago | 1.69% | -1.98% | 0.29% |
| Cook | 0.18% | -1.94% | 1.75% |
| Carroll | 2.37% | -1.90% | -0.46% |
| Peoria | 2.69% | -1.81% | -0.88% |
| Richland | 2.68% | -1.81% | -0.86% |
| Grundy | 1.49% | -1.68% | 0.19% |
| Jackson | 2.10% | -1.55% | -0.54% |
| Saline | 3.73% | -1.42% | -2.31% |
| Boone | 0.56% | -1.32% | 0.75% |
| McLean | 1.09% | -1.30% | 0.21% |
| Tazewell | 3.12% | -1.30% | -1.81% |
| Crawford | 3.79% | -1.28% | -2.51% |
| Putnam | 2.37% | -1.16% | -1.19% |
| Williamson | 1.49% | -1.10% | -0.38% |
| JoDaviess | 0.14% | -1.09% | 0.95% |
| Cass | 3.77% | -1.04% | -2.72% |
| Woodford | 2.40% | -1.01% | -1.38% |
| Stark | 2.24% | -0.88% | -1.36% |
| Lawrence | 2.18% | -0.50% | -1.69% |
| Morgan | 2.49% | -0.44% | -2.05% |
| Will | -1.14% | -0.13% | 1.27% |
| Bureau | 0.31% | -0.04% | -0.28% |
| Pope | 1.31% | 0.45% | -1.76% |
| Knox | 0.55% | 0.51% | -1.06% |
| Warren | 0.41% | 0.52% | -0.93% |
| Massac | -0.87% | 0.66% | 0.21% |
| Hardin | 2.31% | 0.71% | -3.02% |
| Ogle | -1.04% | 0.90% | 0.14% |
| Johnson | 0.27% | 1.62% | -1.89% |
| Kendall | -4.26% | 3.04% | 1.23% |
| Lee | -2.11% | 3.16% | -1.05% |
| Menard | -2.02% | 3.53% | -1.51% |
| Livingston | -1.76% | 3.94% | -2.18% |
| Sangamon | -2.51% | 4.08% | -1.57% |
| Logan | -1.44% | 4.19% | -2.75% |
Two things stand out, 1) Cross only outperformed Rauner in 13 of 102 counties, and the two most favorable were Sangamon and Logan where a lot of state workers live; and 2) while some of the counties where Cross most underperformed Rauner include parts of Frerichs' senate district like Vermilion and Champaign counties they also include other parts of the state like far western Adams County, southwestern Pike County and southern Marion and White counties.
Even in Cross' home base of Kendall County he only outperformed Rauner by about 3 points whereas there were 12 counties where Frerichs outperformed Quinn by more than 10 points. The downstate vote makes up the lion's share of the difference in these two races, Cross was unable to match Rauner's example and Frerichs outperformed Quinn throughout.
Cook County is getting all the attention right now simply because they're offering the most information but if you really want to understand why this race is incredibly close and the Governor's race wasn't the explanation mostly lies in the other 101 counties.
