With the filing deadline passed for the 1st quarter 2016 campaign finance reports (D-2's) I thought it would be interesting to update our post from last quarter on the state of the money race for the State House. Since we last looked at this data we had a primary election and now this look gives a much better idea of the state of the money race going into the general election. This data is as of 9pm on April 30th.
Here are the key figures: as of right now Democratic committees have an estimated cash available advantage of about $2.1 million ($35.6 million for the Dems, $33.5 million for the Republicans). Looking at spending the Dems have already spent $26 million so far this cycle, Republicans have already spent $18.2 million this cycle and Independent Expenditure committees (B-1's) spent $11.2 million on legislative races during the primary. That's a total of $55.4 million already spent. When you factor in the amounts of cash currently estimated available and add it to what's already been spent it means that even if no additional money is raised and no new independent expenditures appear we're likely to see $124.5 million spent on legislative races this cycle. Wow!
Let's take a look at the data starting with the current estimated cash available, here is the current cash position of all the committees involved combining the 3/30 cash on hand, plus the 3/30 investment total plus any reported A-1 amounts so far this quarter.
Current Cash Position
| Committee | Q1 Cash on Hand | Q1 Investments | Q2 A-1s | Est Funds Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Illinois | $2,429,001.87 | $0.00 | $26,500.00 | $2,455,501.87 |
| Friends of Michael J. Madigan | $1,372,783.15 | $0.00 | $30,275.00 | $1,403,058.15 |
| Democratic Majority | $2,333,149.51 | $0.00 | $91,000.00 | $2,424,149.51 |
| 13th Ward Democratic Org | $1,245,449.07 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,245,449.07 |
| Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate | $1,482,635.98 | $301,506.32 | $0.00 | $1,784,142.30 |
| Senate Democratic Victory Fund | $2,229,955.11 | $405,301.22 | $0.00 | $2,635,256.33 |
| Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman | $769,358.93 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $769,358.93 |
| Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $3,502,698.50 | $42.36 | $3,500.00 | $3,506,240.86 |
| Dem Senate Candidates | $4,994,097.14 | $220,007.00 | $70,868.24 | $5,284,972.38 |
| Dem House Candidates | $12,769,369.04 | $809,320.66 | $482,918.70 | $14,061,608.40 |
| Total | $33,128,498.30 | $1,736,177.56 | $705,061.94 | $35,569,737.80 |
| Committee | Q1 Cash on Hand | Q1 Investments | Q2 A-1s | Est Funds Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | $20,311,643.80 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $20,311,643.80 |
| Turnaround Illinois | $2,254,635.33 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,254,635.33 |
| Illinois Republican Party | $651,799.75 | $0.00 | $16,100.00 | $667,899.75 |
| Citizens for Durkin | $780,472.40 | $0.00 | $37,200.00 | $817,672.40 |
| House Republican Organization | $303,042.08 | $0.00 | $39,500.00 | $342,542.08 |
| House Republican Leadership Committee | $65,277.40 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $65,277.40 |
| Citizens for Christine Radogno | $561,536.37 | $0.00 | $26,000.00 | $587,536.37 |
| Republican State Senate Campaign Committee | $517,892.38 | $0.00 | $13,500.00 | $531,392.38 |
| Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $912,951.84 | $0.00 | $8,500.00 | $921,451.84 |
| Rep Senate Candidates | $1,508,708.01 | $45,300.00 | $48,707.53 | $1,602,715.54 |
| Rep House Candidates | $4,281,283.44 | $0.00 | $1,135,461.66 | $5,416,745.10 |
| Total | $32,149,242.80 | $45,300.00 | $1,324,969.19 | $33,519,511.99 |
| Committee | Q1 Cash on Hand | Q1 Investments | Q2 A-1s | Est Funds Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Primary Losing Candidates | $340,235.14 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $341,235.14 |
| Republican Primary Losing Candidates | $93,896.41 | $0.00 | $7,765.00 | $101,661.41 |
Going into the fall general election the Democrats actually have a little more than a $2 million estimated cash available advantage, but as we have seen the Governor and his allies are able to commit additional funds in amounts that are virtually unprecedented in Illinois politics.
Now let's look at the same info while adding in the amounts that have already been spent so far this cycle (including in-kinds as spending):
Cycle Spending Ability
| Committee | Already Spent | Q1 Cash on Hand | Q1 Investments | Q2 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Illinois | $538,072.80 | $2,429,001.87 | $0.00 | $26,500.00 | $2,993,574.67 |
| Friends of Michael J. Madigan | $1,640,020.17 | $1,372,783.15 | $0.00 | $30,275.00 | $3,043,078.32 |
| Democratic Majority | $871,977.99 | $2,333,149.51 | $0.00 | $91,000.00 | $3,296,127.50 |
| 13th Ward Democratic Org | $272,060.96 | $1,245,449.07 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,517,510.03 |
| Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate | $688,272.67 | $1,482,635.98 | $301,506.32 | $0.00 | $2,472,414.97 |
| Senate Democratic Victory Fund | $1,536,150.63 | $2,229,955.11 | $405,301.22 | $0.00 | $4,171,406.96 |
| Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman | $85,590.57 | $769,358.93 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $854,949.50 |
| Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $1,698,911.71 | $3,502,698.50 | $42.36 | $3,500.00 | $5,205,152.57 |
| Dem Senate Candidates | $4,208,546.60 | $4,994,097.14 | $220,007.00 | $70,868.24 | $9,493,518.98 |
| Dem House Candidates | $11,203,399.75 | $12,769,369.04 | $809,320.66 | $482,918.70 | $25,265,008.15 |
| Total | $22,743,003.85 | $33,128,498.30 | $1,736,177.56 | $705,061.94 | $58,312,741.65 |
| Committee | Already Spent | Q1 Cash on Hand | Q1 Investments | Q2 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | $2,624,772.17 | $20,311,643.80 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $22,936,415.97 |
| Turnaround Illinois | $4,001,086.86 | $2,254,635.33 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $6,255,722.19 |
| Illinois Republican Party | $1,663,295.77 | $651,799.75 | $0.00 | $16,100.00 | $2,331,195.52 |
| Citizens for Durkin | $550,350.74 | $780,472.40 | $0.00 | $37,200.00 | $1,368,023.14 |
| House Republican Organization | $656,686.28 | $303,042.08 | $0.00 | $39,500.00 | $999,228.36 |
| House Republican Leadership Committee | $3,286.25 | $65,277.40 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $68,563.65 |
| Citizens for Christine Radogno | $168,490.63 | $561,536.37 | $0.00 | $26,000.00 | $756,027.00 |
| Republican State Senate Campaign Committee | $693,245.16 | $517,892.38 | $0.00 | $13,500.00 | $1,224,637.54 |
| Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $565,648.77 | $912,951.84 | $0.00 | $8,500.00 | $1,487,100.61 |
| Rep Senate Candidates | $2,282,987.18 | $1,508,708.01 | $45,300.00 | $48,707.53 | $3,885,702.72 |
| Rep House Candidates | $3,357,574.75 | $4,281,283.44 | $0.00 | $1,135,461.66 | $8,774,319.85 |
| Total | $16,567,424.56 | $32,149,242.80 | $45,300.00 | $1,324,969.19 | $50,086,936.55 |
| Committee | Already Spent |
|---|---|
| Primary Independent Expenditure Spending (B-1's) | $11,168,207.97 |
| Committee | Already Spent | Q1 Cash on Hand | Q1 Investments | Q2 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Primary Losing Candidates | $3,337,775.14 | $340,235.14 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $3,679,010.28 |
| Republican Primary Losing Candidates | $1,606,159.06 | $93,896.41 | $0.00 | $7,765.00 | $1,707,820.47 |
Looking at the already spent figures (and including the losing primary candidates) the Democrats have already spent $26 million and the Republicans have already spent $18.2 million, plus another $11.2 million was spent by independent expenditure committees (B-1 filings) on legislative races for an already spent total of $55.4 million. When you factor in the amounts of cash currently estimated available and add it to what's already been spent it means that even if no additional money is raised an no new independent expenditures appear we're likely to see $124.5 million spent on legislative races this cycle. That's unbelievable!
Finally, here are the other top 25 committees that have notable funds and could impact the fall elections if they so choose.
| Name | COH | INV | A-1 | Est Funds Avail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friends of Edward M Burke | $2,160,076.64 | $6,273,896.00 | $5,500.00 | $8,439,472.64 |
| IllinoisGO IE | $6,149,225.57 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $6,149,225.57 |
| Laborers' Political League - Great Lakes Region | $3,023,155.22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $3,023,155.22 |
| Citizens for Lisa Madigan | $2,173,498.62 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,173,498.62 |
| Illinois State Medical Society PAC | $415,826.75 | $1,251,596.00 | $14,400.00 | $1,681,822.75 |
| Carpenters Helping in the Political Process (CHIPP) | $1,612,141.33 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,612,141.33 |
| Laborers' Political Action and Education League | $1,443,781.99 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,443,781.99 |
| Chicagoland Operators Joint Labor-Management PAC | $1,128,549.69 | $0.00 | $263,144.71 | $1,391,694.40 |
| Biss for Illinois | $1,360,488.45 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,360,488.45 |
| The Burnham Committee | $1,307,346.28 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,307,346.28 |
| Support Independent Maps | $478,768.86 | $0.00 | $686,500.00 | $1,165,268.86 |
| Friends for Susana Mendoza | $1,102,541.75 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,102,541.75 |
| Stand for Children IL PAC | $1,070,877.79 | $0.00 | $22,600.00 | $1,093,477.79 |
| Citizens for Alderman Reilly | $1,012,213.26 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,012,213.26 |
| REALTORS Political Action Committee | $941,494.05 | $0.00 | $16,700.00 | $958,194.05 |
| Roofers' Political Educational and Legislative Fund | $185,753.65 | $749,380.67 | $0.00 | $935,134.32 |
| Dan Rutherford Campaign Committee | $13,432.35 | $844,463.00 | $0.00 | $857,895.35 |
| Citizens for Judy Baar Topinka | $840,769.03 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $840,769.03 |
| Committee to Elect Joseph Berrios Assessor | $831,314.73 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $831,314.73 |
| Citizens for Giannoulias | $779,479.42 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $779,479.42 |
| Friends of Suarez | $14,708.65 | $750,000.00 | $0.00 | $764,708.65 |
| Cook County Democratic Party | $741,225.55 | $0.00 | $5,000.00 | $746,225.55 |
| Illinois PAC for Education (IPACE) | $741,903.61 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $741,903.61 |
| Finishing Trades of Chicago Corp PAC | $688,727.48 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $688,727.48 |
| 14th Ward Regular Democratic Org | $669,790.30 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $669,790.30 |
| James Pate Philip Campaign Fund | $736.10 | $650,000.00 | $0.00 | $650,736.10 |
If you'd like to check my math or investigate and calculate further the data I used to create the tables above can be found here.
Note: these figures are our best estimates and include some double counting of funds, which cannot be avoided. For example not all funds listed in "Transfers In" come from political committees that are already registered with the State Board but for those that do these transfers aren't new money coming into the system, they're simply transfers from one fund to another. If those transfers are from funds that are involved in legislative elections to funds involved in legislative elections (such as when Governor Rauner transferred funds to the state party who then spent money to assist incumbents Bourne and Wojcicki-Jimenez) then we are double counting those funds. The same goes for in-kinds, not all in-kinds are double counted but when a committee that is involved in legislative elections provides and in-kind to another committee involved in legislative elections (such as when the Speaker's leadership committee, Democratic Majority, spent money on mailings on behalf of incumbent House Dems who then reported those transactions as in-kind donations received) we're just seeing the same numbers twice. The only way to control for this double counting would involve manually going through and coding tens of thousands of transactions to determine if each transaction a) involved two committees that were both registered with the State Board and b) both funds were involved with this cycle's legislative elections. That's just not a realistic option so we're left with our best estimates above.
