Last Friday was the filing deadline for the 4th quarter 2015 campaign finance reports (D-2's) and since we have all of that data I thought it would be interesting to update this tweet with a more up to date and thorough look at the state of the money race for the State House. When we last looked at this data it was late December, two and a half months into the quarter and so we had a lot of recent contribution data via A-1 filings but our data on spending and true cash on hand was quite out of date. The data we have now is much closer to the start of the filing period and these estimates are much closer to the true picture.
The race for the State House began almost right after the 2014 election when then Governor-elect Rauner and his allies put $20 million into his campaign committee and later created another Independent Expenditure committee, Turnaround Illinois, with $4.25 million. The Governor, as leader of his party, has pledged to use his resources this cycle to help elect more Republicans to the General Assembly. The Democrats have been playing catch up ever since and by some measures may have actually passed the Republicans in the fundraising race.
Total Raised (including in-kinds) for Q4 2015
| Democratic Committee | Q4 Raised & In-kind |
|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Illinois | $1,786,444.01 |
| Friends of Michael J. Madigan | $1,747,639.53 |
| Democratic Majority | $1,632,063.67 |
| 13th Ward Democratic Org | $638,950.00 |
| Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate | $884,520.00 |
| Senate Democratic Victory Fund | $1,554,358.12 |
| Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman | $476,011.73 |
| Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $637,882.30 |
| Dem Senate Candidates | $1,792,328.42 |
| Dem House Candidates | $7,190,292.50 |
| Total | $18,340,490.28 |
| Republican Committee | Q4 Raised & Inkind |
|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | $4,199.00 |
| Turnaround Illinois | $1,320.78 |
| Illinois Republican Party | $179,912.70 |
| Citizens for Durkin | $344,572.77 |
| House Republican Organization | $282,875.47 |
| Citizens for Christine Radogno | $303,275.39 |
| Republican State Senate Campaign Committee | $306,385.96 |
| Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $259,036.64 |
| Rep Senate Candidates | $705,473.89 |
| Rep House Candidates | $1,185,456.33 |
| Total | $3,572,508.93 |
The Democrats outraised the Republicans in the 4th quarter, that was expected since they have been playing catch up. What is quite noticeable however is the disparity, the Democrats raised roughly $15 million more than the Republicans this quarter, and not just in leadership, much of it going into the actual candidate committees. Aside from Durkin and Radogno the only Republican campaign committee to raise six figures last quarter was Jil Tracy ($105K). On the Democratic side aside from Madigan and Cullerton 19 other Democratic campaign committees raised more than $100K including 11 House committees over $247K and 3 over $500K.
Now let's look at the current cash position of all those involved by combining the 12/31 cash on hand, plus the 12/31 investment total plus any reported A-1 amounts so far this quarter.
Current Cash Position
| Democratic Committee | Q4 COH | Q4 INV | Q1 A-1s | Est Funds Avail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Illinois | $2,394,998.90 | $0.00 | $3,900.00 | $2,398,898.90 |
| Friends of Michael J. Madigan | $2,157,364.97 | $0.00 | $10,600.00 | $2,167,964.97 |
| Democratic Majority | $2,732,949.01 | $0.00 | $1,214.00 | $2,734,163.01 |
| 13th Ward Democratic Org | $1,254,380.90 | $0.00 | $55,000.00 | $1,309,380.90 |
| Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate | $1,211,497.20 | $300,300.46 | $0.00 | $1,511,797.66 |
| Senate Democratic Victory Fund | $2,145,308.24 | $404,232.00 | $17,475.00 | $2,567,015.24 |
| Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman | $695,817.67 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $695,817.67 |
| Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $3,597,832.59 | $42.36 | $4,600.00 | $3,602,474.95 |
| Dem Senate Candidates | $4,722,092.16 | $220,007.00 | $75,681.80 | $5,017,780.96 |
| Dem House Candidates | $13,052,436.87 | $770,871.69 | $571,430.80 | $14,394,739.36 |
| Total | $33,964,678.51 | $1,695,453.51 | $739,901.60 | $36,400,033.62 |
| Republican Committee | Q4 COH | Q4 INV | Q1 A-1s | Est Funds Avail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | $19,555,040.91 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $19,555,040.91 |
| Turnaround Illinois | $2,595,379.90 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,595,379.90 |
| Illinois Republican Party | $400,498.12 | $0.00 | $21,600.00 | $422,098.12 |
| Citizens for Durkin | $773,783.80 | $0.00 | $9,500.00 | $783,283.80 |
| House Republican Organization | $290,416.05 | $0.00 | $14,500.00 | $304,916.05 |
| Citizens for Christine Radogno | $534,402.53 | $0.00 | $2,500.00 | $536,902.53 |
| Republican State Senate Campaign Committee | $427,720.49 | $0.00 | $60,600.00 | $488,320.49 |
| Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $944,113.77 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $944,113.77 |
| Rep Senate Candidates | $1,447,659.18 | $45,300.00 | $85,500.00 | $1,578,459.18 |
| Rep House Candidates | $3,198,673.67 | $0.00 | $209,343.02 | $3,408,016.69 |
| Total | $30,167,688.42 | $45,300.00 | $403,543.02 | $30,616,531.44 |
As of right now there is roughly $67 million sitting in the accounts of various campaign committees waiting to be spent on General Assembly races this cycle and the Dems have about a $6 million advantage ($36.4m to $30.6m). That's a lot of money.
However it does not take into account all of the money that has already been spent. Candidates have been hiring staff, buying yard signs, doing polls and spending money on any number of useful needs that will help them come election time. So let's combine the totals above with the amounts already spent by each committee (plus in-kinds) in 2015.
Cycle Spending Ability
| Democratic Committee | 2015 Spent | Q4 COH | Q4 INV | Q1 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Illinois | $466,425.77 | $2,394,998.90 | $0.00 | $3,900.00 | $2,865,324.67 |
| Friends of Michael J. Madigan | $588,244.74 | $2,157,364.97 | $0.00 | $10,600.00 | $2,756,209.71 |
| Democratic Majority | $329,315.45 | $2,732,949.01 | $0.00 | $1,214.00 | $3,063,478.46 |
| 13th Ward Democratic Org | $181,628.13 | $1,254,380.90 | $0.00 | $55,000.00 | $1,491,009.03 |
| Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate | $568,926.16 | $1,211,497.20 | $300,300.46 | $0.00 | $2,080,723.82 |
| Senate Democratic Victory Fund | $1,049,868.27 | $2,145,308.24 | $404,232.00 | $17,475.00 | $3,616,883.51 |
| Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman | $42,706.07 | $695,817.67 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $738,523.74 |
| Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $1,464,126.75 | $3,597,832.59 | $42.36 | $4,600.00 | $5,066,601.70 |
| Dem Senate Candidates | $2,894,326.73 | $4,722,092.16 | $220,007.00 | $75,681.80 | $7,912,107.69 |
| Dem House Candidates | $5,143,207.88 | $13,052,436.87 | $770,871.69 | $571,430.80 | $19,537,947.24 |
| Total | $12,728,775.95 | $33,964,678.51 | $1,695,453.51 | $739,901.60 | $49,128,809.57 |
| Republican Committee | 2015 Spent | Q4 COH | Q4 INV | Q1 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | $1,372,553.02 | $19,555,040.91 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $20,927,593.93 |
| Turnaround Illinois | $1,659,222.07 | $2,595,379.90 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $4,254,601.97 |
| Illinois Republican Party | $652,689.76 | $400,498.12 | $0.00 | $21,600.00 | $1,074,787.88 |
| Citizens for Durkin | $405,035.31 | $773,783.80 | $0.00 | $9,500.00 | $1,188,319.11 |
| House Republican Organization | $427,965.08 | $290,416.05 | $0.00 | $14,500.00 | $732,881.13 |
| Citizens for Christine Radogno | $139,374.47 | $534,402.53 | $0.00 | $2,500.00 | $676,277.00 |
| Republican State Senate Campaign Committee | $575,939.69 | $427,720.49 | $0.00 | $60,600.00 | $1,064,260.18 |
| Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $458,611.18 | $944,113.77 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,402,724.95 |
| Rep Senate Candidates | $997,741.47 | $1,447,659.18 | $45,300.00 | $85,500.00 | $2,576,200.65 |
| Rep House Candidates | $2,203,396.72 | $3,198,673.67 | $0.00 | $209,343.02 | $5,611,413.41 |
| Total | $8,892,528.77 | $30,167,688.42 | $45,300.00 | $403,543.02 | $39,509,060.21 |
Even if all of these committees never raise another penny they already have the ability to spend almost $90 million this cycle and it's only January. Despite starting from well behind Governor Rauner's significant funds the Democrats are currently able to spend $10 million more than the Republicans. However the Governor and his allies have demonstrated that they have very deep pockets and they can make up the difference any time they choose. Not every penny will be spent of course, many of the Senators that are not up for election this cycle will likely save their money for their next election. Also a number of these districts have primary races and quite a bit of money will be spent on primaries rather than general election contests.
And then there's the big elephant in the room, the $9 million that IllinoisGO has. They aren't the only PAC with significant funds, here is a list of the top 25 other committees that could get involved if they choose.
| Committee | Q4 COH | Q4 INV | Q1 A-1 | Est Funds Avail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IllinoisGO IE | $8,999,970.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8,999,970.00 |
| Friends of Edward M Burke | $2,280,827.14 | $6,356,353.45 | $0.00 | $8,637,180.59 |
| Liberty Principles PAC | $2,746,295.33 | $0.00 | $1,818,000.00 | $4,564,295.33 |
| Laborers' Political League - Great Lakes Region | $2,345,342.74 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,345,342.74 |
| Citizens for Lisa Madigan | $2,137,044.04 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,137,044.04 |
| Illinois State Medical Society PAC | $399,945.90 | $1,230,136.00 | $0.00 | $1,630,081.90 |
| Carpenters Helping in the Political Process (CHIPP) | $1,483,716.29 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,483,716.29 |
| Stand for Children IL PAC | $1,372,305.91 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,372,305.91 |
| The Burnham Committee | $1,309,846.28 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,309,846.28 |
| Illinois PAC for Education (IPACE) | $1,164,664.87 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,164,664.87 |
| Citizens for Alderman Reilly | $1,006,703.57 | $0.00 | $29,000.00 | $1,035,703.57 |
| Cook County Democratic Party | $977,199.32 | $0.00 | $10,000.00 | $987,199.32 |
| REALTORS Political Action Committee | $943,064.66 | $0.00 | $4,000.00 | $947,064.66 |
| Roofers' Political Educational and Legislative Fund | $174,347.22 | $749,380.67 | $0.00 | $923,727.89 |
| Illinois Federation of Teachers COPE | $754,802.93 | $0.00 | $163,746.73 | $918,549.66 |
| Chicagoland Operators Joint Labor-Management PAC | $912,148.74 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $912,148.74 |
| Dan Rutherford Campaign Committee | $14,974.34 | $887,432.00 | $0.00 | $902,406.34 |
| Citizens for Judy Baar Topinka | $840,769.03 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $840,769.03 |
| Committee to Elect Joseph Berrios Assessor | $836,485.17 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $836,485.17 |
| Friends of Suarez | $72,823.28 | $750,000.00 | $0.00 | $822,823.28 |
| Citizens for Giannoulias | $779,764.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $779,764.79 |
| 14th Ward Regular Democratic Org | $722,156.15 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $722,156.15 |
| Laborers' Political Action and Education League | $720,332.88 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $720,332.88 |
| Friends of Anita Alvarez | $697,191.18 | $0.00 | $7,000.00 | $704,191.18 |
| Friends for Susana Mendoza | $674,701.28 | $0.00 | $4,738.71 | $679,439.99 |
The battle for the State House in 2016 is going to be intense. There is already almost $90 million in play, it will certainly eclipse the $100 million mark and may push to $150 million.
We will keep an eye on it for you and we'll keep you up to date. If you want to track all of these races and see the campaign fundraising totals in real-time subscribe to the Illinois Racing Form, it's only $15. We have been updating weekly but once the candidate objections are finalized we will probably set up the computer to publish an updated version daily, coming within the next week or two. For just $15 you can check to see the latest fundraising totals for every race every day. We put a lot of work into it so if you find this info in any way useful do us a favor and sign up.
Note: if you'd like to check my math or investigate and calculate further the data I used to create the tables above can be found here.
