With the latest filing deadline just passed here is the latest update on the state of the money race for the Illinois General Assembly. If you read either of our previous State of the Money Race posts back in either April or January you'll find that the narrative hasn't changed much. With a few notable exceptions there wasn't a lot of fundraising done in Q2 compared to previous quarters. The only General Assembly candidate committees to raise over $100,000 in the quarter were the four legislative leaders plus Bertino-Tarrant ($136K), Forby ($109K), Hoffman ($133K), Romanik ($1 million) and Phelps ($136K). Compare that to the 4th quarter of 2015 when aside from the legislative leaders one Republican and 19 other Democratic campaign committees raised more than $100K including 11 House committees over $247K and 3 over $500K.
The big new money in the quarter came from Bob Romanik, the Republican House candidate in the Metro East's 114th district (currently held by Eddie Lee Jackson) who loaned himself another $1 million in Q2, on top of the previous million he loaned his campaign the quarter before.
Also on the Republican side money that was already in the system moved around a bit. Governor Rauner's campaign committee transferred $5 million to the Illinois Republican Party and then the party transferred $2 million to the House Republican Organization (the state party also transferred another $1 million to HRO on July 1st). So far there haven't been any similar transfers to the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee.
Let's take a look at the data starting with the current estimated cash available, here is the current cash position of all the committees involved combining the 3/30 cash on hand, plus the 3/30 investment total plus any reported A-1 amounts so far this quarter.
Current Cash Position
| Candidate | Q2 Cash on Hand | Q2 Investments | Q3 A-1s | Est Funds Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Illinois | $2,459,508.04 | $0.00 | $30,000.00 | $2,489,508.04 |
| Friends of Michael J. Madigan | $1,299,318.51 | $0.00 | $18,309.75 | $1,317,628.26 |
| Democratic Majority | $2,742,990.67 | $0.00 | $31,600.00 | $2,774,590.67 |
| 13th Ward Democratic Org | $1,239,445.41 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $1,240,445.41 |
| Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate | $1,637,026.79 | $300,488.79 | $0.00 | $1,937,515.58 |
| Senate Democratic Victory Fund | $2,468,521.98 | $412,074.69 | $0.00 | $2,880,596.67 |
| Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman | $887,778.93 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $887,778.93 |
| Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $3,391,413.48 | $42.36 | $41,300.00 | $3,432,755.84 |
| Dem Senate Candidates | $5,233,462.77 | $250,007.00 | $112,373.53 | $5,595,843.30 |
| Dem House Candidates | $13,253,508.33 | $285,941.27 | $304,332.64 | $13,424,572.00 |
| Total | $34,612,974.91 | $1,248,554.11 | $538,915.92 | $35,981,234.70 |
| Candidate | Q2 Cash on Hand | Q2 Investments | Q3 A-1s | Est Funds Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | $15,280,774.95 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $15,280,774.95 |
| Turnaround Illinois | $2,208,676.44 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,208,676.44 |
| Illinois Republican Party | $3,052,327.80 | $0.00 | $10,000.00 | $3,062,327.80 |
| Citizens for Durkin | $859,562.13 | $0.00 | $13,000.00 | $872,562.13 |
| House Republican Organization | $669,355.36 | $0.00 | $1,023,820.05 | $1,693,175.41 |
| House Republican Leadership Committee | $63,527.40 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $63,527.40 |
| Citizens for Christine Radogno | $716,955.96 | $0.00 | $32,000.00 | $748,955.96 |
| Republican State Senate Campaign Committee | $448,015.28 | $0.00 | $6,421.00 | $454,436.28 |
| Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $956,674.76 | $0.00 | $3,000.00 | $959,674.76 |
| Rep Senate Candidates | $1,578,309.02 | $45,300.00 | $44,361.18 | $1,667,970.20 |
| Rep House Candidates | $5,462,830.51 | $25.00 | $165,776.92 | $5,628,632.43 |
| Total | $31,297,009.61 | $45,325.00 | $1,298,379.15 | $32,640,713.76 |
It's somewhat remarkable that even with the Governor's personal wealth and his allied wealthy donors the Democrats have been able to keep pace in the money race. They currently have about $3.4 million more than the Republicans but that advantage can be quickly wiped out if or when the Governor and his allies start writing big checks again. Also the Independent Expenditure committee Liberty Principles PAC has just over $4 million and they have been closely allied with the Governor this cycle so it's basically a wash.
Now let's look at the same info while adding in the amounts that have already been spent so far this cycle (including in-kinds as spending):
Cycle Spending Ability
| Candidate | Already Spent | Q2 Cash on Hand | Q2 Investments | Q3 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Illinois | $605,891.63 | $2,459,508.04 | $0.00 | $30,000.00 | $3,095,399.67 |
| Friends of Michael J. Madigan | $1,929,553.60 | $1,299,318.51 | $0.00 | $18,309.75 | $3,247,181.86 |
| Democratic Majority | $934,771.61 | $2,742,990.67 | $0.00 | $31,600.00 | $3,709,362.28 |
| 13th Ward Democratic Org | $329,614.62 | $1,239,445.41 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $1,570,060.03 |
| Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate | $794,210.49 | $1,637,026.79 | $300,488.79 | $0.00 | $2,731,726.07 |
| Senate Democratic Victory Fund | $1,927,734.85 | $2,468,521.98 | $412,074.69 | $0.00 | $4,808,331.52 |
| Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman | $96,100.57 | $887,778.93 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $983,879.50 |
| Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $2,067,590.58 | $3,391,413.48 | $42.36 | $41,300.00 | $5,500,346.42 |
| Dem Senate Candidates | $5,092,818.51 | $5,233,462.77 | $250,007.00 | $112,373.53 | $10,688,661.81 |
| Dem House Candidates | $12,553,717.80 | $13,253,508.33 | $285,941.27 | $304,332.64 | $26,397,500.04 |
| Total | $26,332,004.26 | $34,612,974.91 | $1,248,554.11 | $538,915.92 | $62,732,449.20 |
| Candidate | Already Spent | Q2 Cash on Hand | Q2 Investments | Q3 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens for Rauner, Inc | $7,861,569.64 | $15,280,774.95 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $23,142,344.59 |
| Turnaround Illinois | $4,048,696.21 | $2,208,676.44 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $6,257,372.65 |
| Illinois Republican Party | $4,421,430.97 | $3,052,327.80 | $0.00 | $10,000.00 | $7,483,758.77 |
| Citizens for Durkin | $646,240.22 | $859,562.13 | $0.00 | $13,000.00 | $1,518,802.35 |
| House Republican Organization | $2,444,183.13 | $669,355.36 | $0.00 | $1,023,820.05 | $4,137,358.54 |
| House Republican Leadership Committee | $5,036.25 | $63,527.40 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $68,563.65 |
| Citizens for Christine Radogno | $217,658.58 | $716,955.96 | $0.00 | $32,000.00 | $966,614.54 |
| Republican State Senate Campaign Committee | $901,413.56 | $448,015.28 | $0.00 | $6,421.00 | $1,355,849.84 |
| Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle | $626,464.56 | $956,674.76 | $0.00 | $3,000.00 | $1,586,139.32 |
| Rep Senate Candidates | $2,781,646.46 | $1,578,309.02 | $45,300.00 | $44,361.18 | $4,449,616.66 |
| Rep House Candidates | $4,527,111.13 | $5,462,830.51 | $25.00 | $165,776.92 | $10,155,743.56 |
| Total | $28,481,450.71 | $31,297,009.61 | $45,325.00 | $1,298,379.15 | $61,122,164.47 |
| Committee | Already Spent |
|---|---|
| Primary Independent Expenditure Spending (B-1's) | $11,168,207.97 |
| Candidate | Already Spent | Q1 Cash on Hand | Q1 Investments | Q2 A-1s | Cycle Spending Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Primary Losing Candidates | $3,495,619.55 | $200,191.71 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $3,695,811.26 |
| Republican Primary Losing Candidates | $1,689,475.32 | $21,288.66 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,710,763.98 |
When you look at what's already been spent on legislative races so far plus what is still available to spend the amount is already over $140 million which is an eye popping number, but there is a catch. Some of those spending amounts are really just transfers of money already inside the system. So for example when the Gov's campaign committee transferred $5 million to the Illinois Republican Party back in May, who then transferred $2 million to the House Republican Organization that looks like $7 million in spending when no new money entered or left the system, it just got moved around a bit. Unfortunately there's no easy way to filter these amounts out, I'll see what I can do in the future.
Edited to add:
I pulled up all of the expenditures of $30,000 or more and tried to figure out which ones to subtract to address this double counting issue. I came up with $12,477,100.00, you can download my list to review my work here. That means that we believe that roughly $128 million either already has been spent or is in the bank available to be spent for the 2016 General Assembly elections.
Finally, here are the other top 25 committees that have notable funds and could impact the fall elections if they so choose.
| Name | COH | INV | A-1 | Est Funds Avail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friends of Edward M Burke | $2,090,259.42 | $6,257,127.37 | $0.00 | $8,347,386.79 |
| Liberty Principles PAC | $4,047,466.15 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $4,047,466.15 |
| Laborers' Political Action and Education League | $2,229,666.33 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,229,666.33 |
| Citizens for Lisa Madigan | $2,194,850.80 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2,194,850.80 |
| Laborers' Political League - Great Lakes Region | $1,759,912.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,759,912.79 |
| Illinois PAC for Education (IPACE) | $1,753,013.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,753,013.79 |
| Illinois State Medical Society PAC | $374,778.67 | $1,261,198.00 | $0.00 | $1,635,976.67 |
| Chicagoland Operators Joint Labor-Management PAC | $1,565,230.36 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,565,230.36 |
| Carpenters Helping in the Political Process (CHIPP) | $1,533,859.02 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,533,859.02 |
| The Burnham Committee | $1,400,263.49 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,400,263.49 |
| Biss for Illinois | $1,374,174.71 | $0.00 | $24,300.00 | $1,398,474.71 |
| Friends for Susana Mendoza | $1,332,604.13 | $0.00 | $30,500.00 | $1,363,104.13 |
| Stand for Children IL PAC | $1,092,582.40 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,092,582.40 |
| Support Independent Maps | $1,017,355.40 | $0.00 | $32,000.00 | $1,049,355.40 |
| Citizens for Alderman Reilly | $1,039,888.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,039,888.10 |
| REALTORS Political Action Committee | $988,921.20 | $0.00 | $9,000.00 | $997,921.20 |
| Roofers' Political Educational and Legislative Fund | $196,615.49 | $749,380.67 | $0.00 | $945,996.16 |
| Dan Rutherford Campaign Committee | $11,216.37 | $899,648.00 | $0.00 | $910,864.37 |
| Committee to Elect Joseph Berrios Assessor | $832,194.22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $832,194.22 |
| Citizens for Judy Baar Topinka | $830,415.98 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $830,415.98 |
| Citizens for Giannoulias | $780,209.84 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $780,209.84 |
| Friends of Suarez | $15,732.32 | $750,000.00 | $0.00 | $765,732.32 |
| Illinois Federation of Teachers COPE | $741,932.05 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $741,932.05 |
| Cook County Democratic Party | $728,276.43 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $728,276.43 |
| Citizens for Claar | $148,489.37 | $507,574.31 | $0.00 | $656,063.68 |
If you'd like to check my math or investigate and calculate further the data I used to create the tables above can be found here.
Note: these figures are our best estimates and include some double counting of funds, which cannot be avoided. For example not all funds listed in "Transfers In" come from political committees that are already registered with the State Board but for those that do these transfers aren't new money coming into the system, they're simply transfers from one fund to another. If those transfers are from funds that are involved in legislative elections to funds involved in legislative elections (such as when Governor Rauner transferred funds to the state party) then we are double counting those funds. The same goes for in-kinds, not all in-kinds are double counted but when a committee that is involved in legislative elections provides and in-kind to another committee involved in legislative elections (such as when the Speaker's leadership committee, Democratic Majority, spent money on mailings on behalf of incumbent House Dems who then reported those transactions as in-kind donations received) we're just seeing the same numbers twice. The only way to control for this double counting would involve manually going through and coding tens of thousands of transactions to determine if each transaction a) involved two committees that were both registered with the State Board and b) both funds were involved with this cycle's legislative elections. That's just not a realistic option so we're left with our best estimates above.
