One item really quick, I went to the CBOE website and pulled the registered voter totals from February and the ones they have currently listed for the runoff and put them into the table below, ordered by the largest increase to the smallest.
| Ward | April Registration | Feb Registration | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29,907 | 29,232 | 675 |
| 46 | 29,349 | 28,676 | 673 |
| 2 | 33,066 | 32,438 | 628 |
| 43 | 30,874 | 30,254 | 620 |
| 32 | 31,084 | 30,469 | 615 |
| 42 | 31,924 | 31,309 | 615 |
| 47 | 33,807 | 33,218 | 589 |
| 44 | 30,377 | 29,803 | 574 |
| 11 | 26,035 | 25,470 | 565 |
| 3 | 32,680 | 32,142 | 538 |
| 25 | 25,731 | 25,194 | 537 |
| 27 | 32,605 | 32,087 | 518 |
| 4 | 31,155 | 30,651 | 504 |
| 48 | 30,279 | 29,787 | 492 |
| 26 | 25,181 | 24,709 | 472 |
| 41 | 34,797 | 34,339 | 458 |
| 45 | 31,649 | 31,191 | 458 |
| 5 | 29,778 | 29,321 | 457 |
| 49 | 25,550 | 25,105 | 445 |
| 40 | 28,228 | 27,800 | 428 |
| 28 | 32,829 | 32,409 | 420 |
| 33 | 23,324 | 22,909 | 415 |
| 35 | 22,243 | 21,846 | 397 |
| 23 | 22,767 | 22,399 | 368 |
| 39 | 29,503 | 29,135 | 368 |
| 13 | 24,298 | 23,932 | 366 |
| 29 | 34,881 | 34,515 | 366 |
| 7 | 32,778 | 32,415 | 363 |
| 31 | 21,792 | 21,429 | 363 |
| 10 | 25,931 | 25,572 | 359 |
| 20 | 26,003 | 25,662 | 341 |
| 6 | 33,994 | 33,658 | 336 |
| 19 | 35,346 | 35,016 | 330 |
| 24 | 27,179 | 26,850 | 329 |
| 38 | 29,900 | 29,593 | 307 |
| 50 | 25,217 | 24,914 | 303 |
| 36 | 21,593 | 21,293 | 300 |
| 16 | 26,365 | 26,071 | 294 |
| 18 | 32,066 | 31,783 | 283 |
| 9 | 36,733 | 36,454 | 279 |
| 37 | 31,608 | 31,338 | 270 |
| 8 | 37,765 | 37,496 | 269 |
| 14 | 18,088 | 17,822 | 266 |
| 30 | 21,605 | 21,339 | 266 |
| 12 | 18,185 | 17,930 | 255 |
| 15 | 18,478 | 18,233 | 245 |
| 34 | 38,714 | 38,472 | 242 |
| 21 | 38,481 | 38,244 | 237 |
| 22 | 19,135 | 18,907 | 228 |
| 17 | 30,780 | 30,599 | 181 |
| Total | 1,441,637 | 1,421,430 | 20,207 |
I had expected to see Hispanic wards with the largest raw increases for two reasons, 1) those wards generally have the lowest raw registration totals so they had the most room to grow and 2) some Hispanic focused polling showed significant enthusiasm about the election.
Instead the wards with the largest raw increase in registration since February tend to be wards that are affluent or white or both. Those are subgroups that tended to favor Emanuel in February. It's impossible to say which candidates these new registrants are most likely to support, you could make a case for either candidate, but looking at these numbers they did not match the numbers I expected to find.
