Chicago Mayoral Election – Changes in Registration

Published on Author Scott KennedyLeave a comment

One item really quick, I went to the CBOE website and pulled the registered voter totals from February and the ones they have currently listed for the runoff and put them into the table below, ordered by the largest increase to the smallest.

Ward April Registration Feb Registration Change
1 29,907 29,232 675
46 29,349 28,676 673
2 33,066 32,438 628
43 30,874 30,254 620
32 31,084 30,469 615
42 31,924 31,309 615
47 33,807 33,218 589
44 30,377 29,803 574
11 26,035 25,470 565
3 32,680 32,142 538
25 25,731 25,194 537
27 32,605 32,087 518
4 31,155 30,651 504
48 30,279 29,787 492
26 25,181 24,709 472
41 34,797 34,339 458
45 31,649 31,191 458
5 29,778 29,321 457
49 25,550 25,105 445
40 28,228 27,800 428
28 32,829 32,409 420
33 23,324 22,909 415
35 22,243 21,846 397
23 22,767 22,399 368
39 29,503 29,135 368
13 24,298 23,932 366
29 34,881 34,515 366
7 32,778 32,415 363
31 21,792 21,429 363
10 25,931 25,572 359
20 26,003 25,662 341
6 33,994 33,658 336
19 35,346 35,016 330
24 27,179 26,850 329
38 29,900 29,593 307
50 25,217 24,914 303
36 21,593 21,293 300
16 26,365 26,071 294
18 32,066 31,783 283
9 36,733 36,454 279
37 31,608 31,338 270
8 37,765 37,496 269
14 18,088 17,822 266
30 21,605 21,339 266
12 18,185 17,930 255
15 18,478 18,233 245
34 38,714 38,472 242
21 38,481 38,244 237
22 19,135 18,907 228
17 30,780 30,599 181
Total 1,441,637 1,421,430 20,207

I had expected to see Hispanic wards with the largest raw increases for two reasons, 1) those wards generally have the lowest raw registration totals so they had the most room to grow and 2) some Hispanic focused polling showed significant enthusiasm about the election.

Instead the wards with the largest raw increase in registration since February tend to be wards that are affluent or white or both. Those are subgroups that tended to favor Emanuel in February. It’s impossible to say which candidates these new registrants are most likely to support, you could make a case for either candidate, but looking at these numbers they did not match the numbers I expected to find.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *