One item really quick, I went to the CBOE website and pulled the registered voter totals from February and the ones they have currently listed for the runoff and put them into the table below, ordered by the largest increase to the smallest.

WardApril RegistrationFeb RegistrationChange
129,907 29,232 675
4629,349 28,676 673
233,066 32,438 628
4330,874 30,254 620
3231,084 30,469 615
4231,924 31,309 615
4733,807 33,218 589
4430,377 29,803 574
1126,035 25,470 565
332,680 32,142 538
2525,731 25,194 537
2732,605 32,087 518
431,155 30,651 504
4830,279 29,787 492
2625,181 24,709 472
4134,797 34,339 458
4531,649 31,191 458
529,778 29,321 457
4925,550 25,105 445
4028,228 27,800 428
2832,829 32,409 420
3323,324 22,909 415
3522,243 21,846 397
2322,767 22,399 368
3929,503 29,135 368
1324,298 23,932 366
2934,881 34,515 366
732,778 32,415 363
3121,792 21,429 363
1025,931 25,572 359
2026,003 25,662 341
633,994 33,658 336
1935,346 35,016 330
2427,179 26,850 329
3829,900 29,593 307
5025,217 24,914 303
3621,593 21,293 300
1626,365 26,071 294
1832,066 31,783 283
936,733 36,454 279
3731,608 31,338 270
837,765 37,496 269
1418,088 17,822 266
3021,605 21,339 266
1218,185 17,930 255
1518,478 18,233 245
3438,714 38,472 242
2138,481 38,244 237
2219,135 18,907 228
1730,780 30,599 181
Total1,441,637 1,421,430 20,207

I had expected to see Hispanic wards with the largest raw increases for two reasons, 1) those wards generally have the lowest raw registration totals so they had the most room to grow and 2) some Hispanic focused polling showed significant enthusiasm about the election.

Instead the wards with the largest raw increase in registration since February tend to be wards that are affluent or white or both. Those are subgroups that tended to favor Emanuel in February. It's impossible to say which candidates these new registrants are most likely to support, you could make a case for either candidate, but looking at these numbers they did not match the numbers I expected to find.


LET'S GO HAWKS!!!
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