Courtesy of Politico this morning we have new polls of five House districts that are currently held by Republicans and could be potential Democratic targets in the fall. Each of these districts is listed in our tracker of potential target General Assembly races.
The polling was done by Public Policy Polling on behalf of SEIU Healthcare. The service union wanted to test some messages related to possible upcoming votes that would affect the union's members. The polls also included numbers on the Governor's approval rating in the district and the district's preference on whether or not to re-elect the incumbent.
First, the Governor's approval rating in each district:
|Rauner Approval||Good||Bad||Neutral||Not Sure|
|20th House (McAuliffe)||34%||48%||16%||2%|
|61st House (Jesiel)||40%||37%||21%||2%|
|95th House (Bourne)||30%||46%||21%||2%|
|99th House (Wojicki-Jimenez)||32%||51%||16%||1%|
|115th House (Bryant)||27%||50%||21%||2%|
The Governor's approval rating is upside down in all but one district, the 61st.
Next, the generic re-elect numbers for each incumbent:
|Incumbent||Re-Elect||Someone New||Not Sure|
|Mike McAuliffe (20th)||45%||40%||15%|
|Sheri Jesiel (61st)||36%||43%||21%|
|Avery Bourne (95th)||42%||47%||11%|
|Sara Wojcicki-Jimenez (99th)||33%||49%||19%|
|Terri Bryant (115th)||45%||44%||11%|
McAuliffe has his head above water despite the Governor's numbers, Jesiel is behind in the generic re-elect by 7 points despite the Gov's +3 approval rating, Bourne and Wojcicki-Jimenez (both of whom were appointed to their seats via the Governor) are well under water in their districts along with the Governor and Bryant is just holding about even despite the Governor's dismal numbers.
These numbers are just a limited snapshot but interesting nonetheless. The Governor's team has telegraphed that they intend to tie Democratic House candidates to the Speaker so it would have been interesting to see those numbers in each of these districts, also while generic re-elect numbers are interesting it would have been more interesting to see actual head to head matchups with the Democratic candidates that will appear on the ballot this fall.
Here are the links to the full poll results and crosstabs:
|▪||2018 Cycle District Rankings|
|▪||Understanding the Governor's Race (General Election) - Governor Rauner's 2014 Fundraising|
|▪||Understanding the Governor's Race (Dem Primary) - The 2004 Primary for US Senate|
|▪||Understanding the Governor's Race (Dem Primary) - The Burris Coalition|
|▪||Fun With Numbers: About That $300 Million Number|