Contribution Limits Lifted in the 22nd House (Mike Madigan)

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With this latest independent expenditure disclosure Illinois United for Change has now spent more than $100,000 in the 22nd House race supporting Jason Gonzales/opposing Mike Madigan thereby exceeding the threshold needed to lift the campaign contribution limits for all candidates in this race for the remainder of the primary election cycle. This means that the Speaker’s candidate committee, Friends of Michael J. Madigan, can now raise unlimited funds, an advantage not shared by the candidate committees of any of the other three legislative leaders.

The affected timeframe may be brief, the primary election cycle ends in two weeks, but the impact of this may be significant. Candidate committees can make unlimited transfers to party committees and during the general election party committees can make unlimited transfers to candidate committees. For the next two weeks the Speaker can raise unlimited funds into his candidate committee, he can then transfer as much of that as he’d like to the State Party (which he also controls) and come fall he can then use those State Party funds to either make expenditures on behalf of his candidates in targeted races or make unlimited transfers to those candidate committees.

The Governor took advantage of a similar opportunity at the end of 2014. In the 2014 Governor’s race the contribution limits were lifted due to the large amount of self funding from Bruce Rauner, however the Governor’s campaign committee was scheduled to be subject to contribution limits once again at the start of January 2015. After Bruce Rauner was elected Governor but before he took office he turned his attention to the General Assembly. One day prior to the contribution limits going back into effect his main campaign committee, Citizens for Rauner, added $20 million from three contributors: 1) Bruce Rauner, $10 million, 2) Ken Griffin, $8 million, 3) Richard Uhilein, $2 million. Here’s what that money is intended to be used for according to Greg Hinz in Crain’s, who was given the scoop:

The money won’t be spent on his re-election campaign in 2018 but to help him pass legislation this spring through a General Assembly in which Democrats hold veto-proof majorities in both the House and Senate.

“There are a lot of legislators who he is going to be asking to make a lot of tough decisions,” said one Rauner insider who asked not to be named. “The intent is to build a large and effective political operation in order to pursue his agenda.”

Some of the money may be donated directly to legislators’ campaign committees and other funds spent on their behalf. TV ads, polling and other activity on behalf of Rauner policies also is expected, the insider said. And the war chest only is “the first in a series,” part of a “multipronged effort” in which other funding vehicles will be formed, the source said. “This is the tip of the iceberg.”

 

Since that time the Democrats, particularly in the House, have been aggressively fundraising to try to catch up. In 2015 the four funds controlled by the Speaker raised $7.7 million, Cullerton’s three funds raised $5.1 million while the Senate and House Republicans each raised about $1.6 million and the Illinois Republican Party raised about $500K. In addition to leadership fundraising the House Democrats have been very aggressively raising large sums into the various candidate committees of the candidates they expect to face targeted general election races, particularly in the 4th quarter of 2015. Aside from the legislative leaders only one other Republican campaign committee raised over $100K last quarter (Jil Tracy) whereas 19 other Democratic campaign committees raised more than $100K including 11 House committees over $247K and 3 over $500K. The Democrats were busy raising money into every door available, now though the Speaker can focus on his own interests and raise unlimited sums during this very brief window for the next two weeks until election day.

If the Republicans want to try to maximize the same advantage they have opportunities as well. The contribution limits are off in the 72nd and 114th House as well as the 26th and 50th Senate races where they have candidates. If they want to go the coordinated route and they had an agreeable candidate they could raise unlimited sums into a candidate committee and then transfer those funds into the State Party. If they aren’t concerned about coordination they could simply raise unlimited sums into the Governor’s independent expenditure committee, Turnaround Illinois, and then spend that money independent of the candidates involved. Turnaround Illinois finished 2015 with $2.6 million on hand and just the other night the Governor personally contributed another $2 million. Plus the Governor still has $20 million in his main campaign committee that he has pledged to use to support his allied candidates in the General Assembly.

The contribution limits that went into effect for Illinois elections in 2011 have done little to stem the tide of money flowing into our electoral system. Instead we have a much more convoluted process where the money is coming in through a much larger number of vehicles making it harder to track and some competitors find themselves raising money by an unequal set of rules. For a short time the Speaker will be able to raise unlimited funds, an advantage not shared by President Cullerton or Leaders Radogno and Durkin. The Republican leaders’ disadvantage is somewhat offset by the Governor’s deep pocketed supporters and his flush campaign funds. Meanwhile President Cullerton will have to try to keep up while only being able to raise money in limited amounts, unless he cuts a deal with the Speaker to work together to financially support all of the legislative Democratic candidates. Given the amount of money the Governor has pledged to support Republican General Assembly candidates can he afford not to?

If you are a wealthy Democratic donor your phone is about to ring, the Speaker will be calling. In fact he’s likely to be on the phone non-stop for the next two weeks focused on big (very big) checks. The window for the Speaker is now wide open in a way that isn’t for his peers and history suggests that he’s likely to press his advantage, we’ll keep track of the results and update you on the progress.

 

Note: there are two scenarios where the contribution limits can be lifted 1) when a candidate’s self funding exceeds the threshold and 2) when an independent expenditure committee’s independent expenditures exceed the threshold, and they appear to be treated differently. If the contribution limits are lifted during a primary because of self funding (#1) the contribution limits are lifted for both the primary and the general election, however the section of the law on lifting contribution limits in a primary due to independent expenditures (#2) is silent on the general election so it only appears to apply to that current election cycle. In this scenario for the 22nd House the contribution limits are being lifted because of scenario 2 so the lifting of the contribution limits appears to only apply to the primary. Had they been lifted for both the primary and general the advantage to the Speaker would have been even greater.

Weekly Roundup – February 26th, 2016

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I’ve been tweeting a lot of interesting updates from recent disclosures and I thought I’d do a weekly roundup to try to summarize the week’s interesting news and organize these developments into a format you can follow. Here is last week’s roundup.

Reminder:
  • A-1 reports are for contributions received by the committee of $1,000 or more.
  • B-1 reports are for independent expenditures made independent of the candidate (cannot be coordinated).
  • Regular expenditures (not independent expenditures) are not reported until the quarterly filings are due, next on 3/31.

What follows is not every development in each of these races, only the big and/or notable ones. For comprehensive coverage of all the campaign finance data subscribe to either or both of our Racing Forms, updated weekly. The Illinois Racing Form covers all the General Assembly races, the Cook County Racing Form covers all the county candidates, MWRD, judges and committeemen races.

It was a long week, over 100 tweets to summarize, let’s get to it.

5th House (D) – Ken Dunkin (i) vs. Juliana Stratton
  • On Tuesday IllinoisGO filed a new B-1 for $78K for TV and mail opposing Juliana Stratton.
  • On Tuesday Juliana Stratton added $119K including $50K from the Operating Engineers Local 399, $40K from SEIU Illinois Council & $25K from the Illinois Pipe Trades. On Wednesday she added another $42K, including a small in-kind for phone banking from the 42nd Ward Democratic Organization.
 
7th House (D) – Chris Welch (i) vs. Chris Harris
  • Last Friday the National Association of REALTORS filed a B-1 for $12K for mail supporting Chris Welch.
 
22nd House (D) – Michael Madigan (i) vs. Jason Gonzales vs. Joe Barboza vs. Grasiela Rodriguez
  • Illinois United for Change, the independent expenditure committee funded largely with Blair Hull money that has been supporting Jason Gonzales had an eventful week. Last Friday they added $10K, on Tuesday they reported another $50K from real estate executive Irvin Kessler and on Thursday they reported receiving $20K from the Illinois Opportunity Project the same group led by Dan Proft that gave Ken Dunkin a record $500K contribution earlier this month. They also continued to spend money this week, on Tuesday filing a B-1 for $25K for field, Wednesday filing a B-1 for $15K for printing and Thursday filing a B-1 for another $15K for printing, all supporting Jason Gonzales.
  • On Thursday Jason Gonzales added $10,800.
  • Worth noting: the four funds controlled by Speaker Madigan have an estimated funds available of around $8.5 million.
  • Interesting thought: Illinois United for Change has already spent almost $85K supporting Gonzales/opposing Madigan. If they spend more than $100K then the contribution limits would be removed for this race meaning the Speaker’s candidate committee Friends of Michael J. Madigan could raise unlimited funds, something that could have a very significant impact not only for this race but also for the fall. So far Illinois United for Change has raised $300K and spent only about $85K on independent expenditures, they could have as much as $215K still available to spend on this race or others. If/when they exceed the threshold and blow the caps the impact would be far reaching and potentially enormous, I’ll have much more on this if/when it happens.
 
26th House (D) – Christian Mitchell (i) vs. Jay Travis
  • On Sunday Christian Mitchell added $25K from Democratic Majority, the leadership committee of the House Dems. Both Mitchell and Jay Travis added other smaller amounts during the week.
  • On Thursday Chicagoans United for Economic Security PAC, an independent expenditure committee that has received significant funds from CTU filed a B-1 for $160K for cable TV and mail supporting Jay Travis.
 
40th House (D) – Jaime Andrade (i) vs. Harish Patel
  • Last Friday the National Association of REALTORS filed a B-1 for $10K for mail supporting Jaime Andrade.
 
66th House (R) – Paul Serwatka vs. Daniel Wilbrandt vs. Allen Skillicorn vs. Carolyn Schofield
  • On Tuesday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $2K for TV for Allen Skillicorn.
 
72nd House (D) – Jeff Jacobs vs. Michael Halpin vs. Katelyn Hotle vs. Glen Evans
 
72nd House (R) – Brandi McGuire vs. Jordan Thoms
  • On Tuesday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $4K for graphic design for Brandi McGuire.
 
74th House (R) – Wayne Saline vs. Dan Swanson vs. Mike DeSutter
  • On Tuesday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $9K for TV for Mike DeSutter.
 
95th House (R) – Avery Bourne (i) vs. Dennis Scobbie vs. Christopher Hicks
  • Last Friday the Illinois Republican Party filed another B-1 spending $16K on mail for Avery Bourne. On Tuesday the Illinois Republican Party filed a new B-1 for $2K for live calls for Bourne.
  • On Tuesday INCS Action Independent Committee filed a B-1 for $5K for mail supporting Avery Bourne.
 
99th House (R) – Sara Wojcicki Jimenez (i) vs. Kent Gray
  • Last Friday the Illinois Republican Party filed another B-1 spending $5K on mail for Sara Wojcicki Jimenez. On Tuesday the Illinois Republican Party filed a new B-1 for $2K for live calls for Wojcicki Jimenez.
 
102nd House (R) – Brad Halbrook vs. Randy Peterson vs. Jim Acklin
  • Last Friday Brad Halbrook disclosed a $53K contribution from Governor Rauner’s campaign committee.
  • On Monday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $24K for TV for Brad Halbrook. On Tuesday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $2K for TV for Brad Halbrook. On Thursday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $41K for TV supporting Brad Halbrook.
  • On Tuesday Jim Acklin filed an A-1 for $40K, including four identical contributions from the IEA all on 2/22, all for $5K. On Wednesday Acklin filed another A-1 for $32K, including six identical contributions from the IEA all on 2/23, all for $5K. It’s hard to tell if those are a bunch of accidental duplicates or if that is just an atypical contribution/disclosure method.
  • On Thursday Randy Peterson filed an A-1 for $15K from current 102nd district Republican incumbent Adam Brown.
 
110th House (R) – Reggie Phillips (i) vs. Jonathan Kaye
 
2nd Senate (D) – Angelica Alfaro vs. Omar Aquino
  • On Tuesday IllinoisGO filed a new B-1 for $12K for mail supporting Angelica Alfaro. On Thursday IllinoisGO filed a new B-1 for $12K for mail supporting Angelica Alfaro.
 
5th Senate (D) – Patricia Van Pelt (i) vs. Bob Fioretti
  • The Illinois Senate Democratic Victory Fund, the leadership committee of President Cullerton has had a history of supporting their incumbents facing primaries and has been supporting Van Pelt this cycle. Last Friday she filed an A-1 for an in-kind contribution from the Victory Fund for $18K paid to their pollster for “RENT” but was probably for polling. Later on Friday she filed another A-1 for $50K including $30K from the Illinois Senate Democratic Victory Fund. Then on Saturday she filed another A-1 once again for an in-kind contribution from the Victory Fund for $18K paid to their pollster for “RESEARCH” (polling), which was likely just a correction of the A-1 filed the day before, however Van Pelt has not filed a letter with the State Board indicating such.
  • On Tuesday IllinoisGO filed a new B-1 for $17K for mail supporting Patricia Van Pelt. On Thursday IllinoisGO filed a new B-1 for $17K for mail supporting Patricia Van Pelt.
 
26th Senate (R) – Dan McConchie vs. Casey Urlacher vs. Martin McLaughlin
  • On Monday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $49K for TV for Dan McConchie. This $49K for McConchie put the total Liberty Principles spending for this race over the $100K threshold and the contribution limits have been removed. On Tuesday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $2K for TV for Dan McConchie.
  • On Wednesday Dan McConchie filed an A-1 which included a $2,500 contribution from Chicago Bears owner Virginia McCaskey, notable because one of McConchie’s opponents is Casey Urlacher, brother of Chicago Bears great Brian Urlacher. This is not McCaskey’s only contribution, she does have a long donor history going back to the 90’s of donating to Republican candidates and conservative causes, including a $5K donation earlier this week to Tom Morrison.
  • On Thursday Casey Urlacher filed an A-1 loaning himself $34K.
 
50th Senate (R) – Sam McCann (i) vs. Bryce Benton
  • On Saturday Sam McCann filed an A-1 for $33,500 in mostly labor money.
  • On Tuesday Liberty Principles filed a new B-1 for $40K for TV and mail for Bryce Benton.
 
Cook County State’s Attorney (D) – Anita Alvarez (i) vs. Kim Foxx vs. Donna More
  • Illinois Safety & Justice, the independent expenditure committee supporting Kim Foxx added significant funds this week. On Friday they added $50K from George Soros and then on Wednesday they added another $100K from Soros. The large donations from Soros to the IE were a bit perplexing, there are no contribution limits in this race so he could have made these donations directly to the Foxx campaign. In fact Illinois Safety & Justice added so much money from George Soros that on Wednesday they had to amend their statement of organization to list Soros as a sponsoring entity. You may remember this “sponsoring entity” issue from my previous mention regarding Dunkin (who still hasn’t amended his D-1). They quickly started spending this money on Tuesday spending $40K on direct mail, and then again on Thursday spending another $40K on direct mail. That last $40K put them over $100K spent on this race which would normally eliminate the contribution limits but the caps were already off, however it did still trigger an official notification.
  • Also this week Kim Foxx added significant funds to her campaign committee, last Friday she filed an A-1 for $235K including $200K from Fred Eychaner, $15K from attorney Arthur Loevy and $5K from Jack Franks’ candidate committee.
  • On Monday Donna More added $90K, $82K came from herself as in-kinds for mail & consulting. She added an additional $14K on Wednesday.
  • On Tuesday Anita Alvarez added $94K, including two identical $30K donations from the plumbers/pipefitters (possible duplicates?).
 
Other Notable Contributions Received
  • Last Friday judicial candidate Kathleen Mesich loaned herself $25K.
  • Last Friday the Illinois Republican Party added $161K, including $150K from Governor Rauner. The party has been making a number of independent expenditures supporting two of Rauner’s favored candidates facing Republican primaries, Avery Bourne, a former Rauner campaign worker and Sara Wojcicki Jimenez, the First Lady’s former Chief of Staff.
  • On Sunday Support Independent Maps reported another $12K.
  • A new PAC, New Urban Conservative PAC, whose purpose is “To advance the conservative cause in urban areas” added $21K from Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein.
  • On Monday the Cook County Democratic Party added $40K from the Foxx campaign, their slated candidate for State’s Attorney.
  • On Monday MWRD candidate Marty Durkan added not one, not two but three A-1’s totaling $45K.
  • On Monday Toni Preckwinkle added $142K, including $50K from the Operating Engineers Local 150, $20K from the Illinois Pipe Trades and $10K from Midway Airport Concessionaires.
  • On Tuesday the International Union of Operating Engineers added $50K to their PAC.
  • On Tuesday Stand for Children moved $65K to its independent expenditure committee.
  • On Tuesday Lt. Governor Evelyn Sanguinetti added $2,500 from the Realtors.
  • On Wednesday Chicagoans United for Economic Security PAC added $28K, including $25K from CTU and $3K from the Cook County College Teachers. On Thursday they added another $200K from CTU.
  • On Thursday Michelle Harris moved $48K from her aldermanic candidate committee to her circuit court clerk candidate committee.
  • On Thursday the House Republican Organization added $45K while Leader Durkin added $8K.
  • On Thursday the IL Lunch Pail Republicans PAC filed not one but two separate A-1’s totaling $100K from the Operating Engineers.
  • On Thursday Alderman Brendan Reilly moved $15K from his aldermanic campaign committee over to the ward organization, 42nd Ward Democratic Org. The ward organization has been spending money to support both Juliana Stratton and Jay Travis.

Seriously, don’t make your staff stay until midnight to file something they could have filed at 8:30. Knock it off.

Other Interesting Developments
  • Two Fridays ago the Realtors added $27K to their fund and then immediately spent it on independent expenditures. Last Friday they did the same thing, first they added $22K from their members and then they filed a B-1 for mailers for Chris Welch ($12K) and Jaime Andrade ($10K).
  • On Wednesday the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee created an Illinois registered PAC.
 

You can find the complete list of all the funds available, every A-1 filed, every B-1 filed and a complete listing of all the candidates and districts in our Racing Forms. The Illinois Racing Form covers every General Assembly race while the Cook County Racing Form covers all the countywide, judicial, MWRD and Chicago committeemen races, full details below.

The Illinois Racing Form
  • District profiles for every General Assembly race including district map, current candidate listing, candidate headshots and past electoral performance.
  • Current financial status for each candidate’s campaign committee as well as other relevant committees, such as the Governor, legislative leaders and IE’s.
  • Latest candidate filings.
  • Candidates’ social media presences, including websites, Facebook , LinkedIn and Twitter.
The Cook County Racing Form
  • District profiles for every countywide, judicial, MWRD and Chicago committeeman race including district map, current candidate listing, candidate headshots and past electoral performance.
  • Current financial status for each candidate’s campaign committee as well as other relevant or related committees.
  • Latest candidate filings.
  • Candidates’ social media presences, including websites, Facebook , LinkedIn and Twitter.

Weekly Roundup – February 19th, 2016

Published on

I’ve been tweeting a lot of interesting updates from recent disclosures and I thought I’d do a weekly roundup to try to summarize the week’s interesting news and organize these developments into a format you can follow. Here is last week’s roundup.

Reminder:
  • A-1 reports are for contributions received by the committee of $1,000 or more.
  • B-1 reports are for independent expenditures made independent of the candidate (cannot be coordinated).
  • Regular expenditures (not independent expenditures) are not reported until the quarterly filings are due, next on 3/31.

What follows is not every development in each of these races, only the big and/or notable ones. For comprehensive coverage of all the campaign finance data subscribe to either or both of our Racing Forms, updated weekly. The Illinois Racing Form covers all the General Assembly races, the Cook County Racing Form covers all the county candidates, MWRD, judges and committeemen races.

 
5th House (D) – Ken Dunkin (i) vs. Juliana Stratton
 
22nd House (D) – Michael Madigan (i) vs. Jason Gonzales vs. Joe Barboza vs. Grasiela Rodriguez
  • On Saturday Illinois United for Change, the independent expenditure committee that has been supporting Jason Gonzales, added $10K to their IE committee.
  • On Wednesday Jason Gonzales added $9K, mostly from various CEOs.
  • Thursday Illinois United for Change, the independent expenditure committee that has been supporting Jason Gonzales added $100K, including $50K from Hull Investments.
  • Worth noting: the four funds controlled by Speaker Madigan have an estimated funds available of almost $9 million.
 
26th House (D) – Christian Mitchell (i) vs. Jay Travis
  • Last Friday right after reporting an A-1 for $27K from member dues the National Association of REALTORS Fund they then filed a B-1 for independent expenditures supporting Christian Mitchell for $27K for direct mail, phone calls and online ads.
  • On Sunday Jay Travis added $26K, including $25K from the IFT.
  • On Tuesday Jay Travis added $31K, including $25K from CTU.
  • On Tuesday Jay Travis reported an in-kind for $4K for a mailing from the 42nd Ward Democratic Organization.
  • Thursday Jay Travis informed the State Board that her Tuesday filing was in error and the contribution from CTU should have been for $12K instead of $25K.
 
66th House (R) – Paul Serwatka vs. Daniel Wilbrandt vs. Allen Skillicorn vs. Carolyn Schofield
 
72nd House (D) – Jeff Jacobs vs. Michael Halpin vs. Katelyn Hotle vs. Glen Evans
 
72nd House (R) – Brandi McGuire vs. Jordan Thoms
 
74th House (R) – Wayne Saline vs. Dan Swanson vs. Mike DeSutter
 
95th House (R) – Avery Bourne (i) vs. Dennis Scobbie vs. Christopher Hicks
  • On Tuesday the Illinois Republican Party filed a B-1 for $153K for TV ads supporting Avery Bourne.
  • On Tuesday the Illinois Republican Party filed a B-1 for $5K for telephone polling and ID supporting Avery Bourne.
 
99th House (R) – Sara Wojcicki Jimenez (i) vs. Kent Gray
  • On Tuesday the Illinois Republican Party filed a B-1 for $171K for TV ads supporting Sara Wojcicki Jimenez.
 
102nd House (R) – Brad Halbrook vs. Randy Peterson vs. Jim Acklin
 
110th House (R) – Reggie Phillips (i) vs. Jonathan Kaye
  • On Monday Liberty Principles PAC filed a B-1 for $7K for graphic design work supporting Reggie Phillips.
  • On Tuesday incumbent Reggie Phillips added $5K from the candidate committee of Leader Jim Durkin.
  • Thursday Liberty Principles PAC filed a B-1 for $11K for TV ads for Reggie Phillips.
 
5th Senate (D) – Patricia Van Pelt (i) vs. Bob Fioretti
  • On Wednesday Patricia Van Pelt added $21K including $20K from the Illinois Senate Democratic Victory Fund, President Cullerton’s caucus leadership fund.
 
26th Senate (R) – Dan McConchie vs. Casey Urlacher vs. Martin McLaughlin
 
50th Senate (R) – Sam McCann (i) vs. Bryce Benton
  • On Saturday Liberty Principles PAC filed a B-1 for $10K for research supporting Bryce Benton.
  • Very late on Saturday night Sam McCann filed an A-1 adding $103K in mostly labor money but also including $10K from Stand for Children.
  • On Tuesday Bryce Benton added $1K from the candidate committee of former State Rep and current Ag Director Raymond Poe.
  • Thursday Liberty Principles PAC filed a B-1 for $648K for TV ads and polling for Bryce Benton.
 
58th Senate (R) – Paul Schimpf vs. Sharee Langenstein
 
Cook County State’s Attorney (D) – Anita Alvarez (i) vs. Kim Foxx vs. Donna More
  • Last Friday Illinois Safety and Justice, the IE supporting Kim Foxx, filed another B-1 for $17K on mail for her.
  • On Tuesday Illinois Safety and Justice, the IE supporting Kim Foxx, added $70K from George Soros. There are no contribution limits in this race, Donna More met the self funding threshold to remove the contribution limits, so Soros could have donated this amount directly to the Foxx campaign, which is a little odd.
  • On Tuesday Anita Alvarez added $78K, including $50K from the Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters PAC.
  • On Tuesday Kim Foxx filed not one but two A-1’s totaling $245K including $200K from Fred Eychaner.
  • On Wednesday the Sun-Times reported that the Kim Foxx campaign violated the campaign finance laws by failing to report a poll paid for by the candidate committee of Toni Preckwinkle as an in-kind contribution. That same day the Foxx campaign did file an A-1 reporting the in-kind contribution.
  • On Wednesday Anita Alvarez added $31K, including $20K from the Illinois Pipe Trades PAC .
  • Late Thursday night Kim Foxx filed not one, not two, but three A-1’s for a total of $81K including $50K from SEIU Illinois Council PAC.
 
Other Notable Contributions Received
  • Last Friday Chicago Treasurer Kurt Summers filed an A-1 for about $20K.
  • Last Friday Judge Anna Loftus filed an A-1 for a personal loan to her campaign of $30K.
  • Last Friday UFCW Local 881 filed an A-1 adding $200K in member dues to their PAC.
  • “Put it on the Underhill tab.” Last Friday judicial candidate Ed Underhill filed an A-1 for a personal loan of $25K to his campaign committee.
  • Last Friday Wine and Spirits Distributors of Illinois PAC filed an A-1 for $43K.
  • Last Friday the Illinois Association of REALTORS added $100K to their PAC.
  • Last Friday the Illinois Pipe Trades PEF reported adding $95K in member dues to their PAC.
  • Support Independent Maps continues to add funds, but this time just $5K.
  • On Saturday Elaine Nekritz, who currently has no opponent in the primary or general, added $28K of mostly trial lawyer money.
  • On Tuesday the IBEW added $42K in member dues to their PAC.
  • On Tuesday SEIU Illinois Council added $75K in member dues to their PAC.
  • On Wednesday SEIU Healthcare Illinois Indiana added $214K to their PAC.
  • On Wednesday the IFT added $140K from their locals, including $51K from CTU.
  • On Wednesday Melinda Bush, who has a general election opponent but no primary opponent, added $56K, including $54K from the IEA.
  • On Wednesday Kwame Raoul, who is on the ballot this cycle but currently faces no primary or general election opposition, added $34K in mostly trial lawyer money.
  • On Wednesday Dan Beiser, currently facing no opposition in the primary or general elections, added $30K from the IBEW.
  • On Wednesday Barbara Flynn Currie, who currently has no opponent in the primary or general elections, added $30K from 22 different donors.
  • The Comptroller’s race has been very, very quiet but Thursday Leslie Munger added $5K.
  • Thursday the Illinois Laborers’ Legislative Committee filed not one but two A-1’s adding about $85K of member money to their PAC.
  • Thursday Citizens for Rauner, Inc filed its first A-1 since October and just the 3rd since taking office, for $7,500.
 
Other Interesting Developments
  • On Tuesday Stand for Children’s IE reported an in-kind for $8,500 for research and then Thursday they reported an in-kind for $2K for data. It appears likely that they are about to start spending some money on independent expenditures, likely for mail.
  • This cycle there are two Metropolitan Water Reclamation District elections, one for a 6 year term that has six active candidates (voters choose 3) and one for a 2 year term that has three active candidates (voters choose 1). One of the candidates in the 2 year election, Marty Durkan, has raised an impressive amount disclosed on A-1’s so far this quarter, despite not being slated by the Cook County Democratic Party. He has reported almost $255K in A-1’s this quarter but it appears some are duplicates and his actual haul is more likely about $199K which is still an impressive sum and far more than the $86K that the other 8 MWRD candidates have disclosed raising so far this quarter COMBINED. Then on Monday Michelle Harris, slated candidate for Cook County Clerk of the Circuit Court, filed an A-1 disclosing an in-kind contribution of $50K for a mailing from Friends of Marty Durkan. A Twitter follower sent along a scan of the mailer, it’s double sided featuring Durkan on one side and Harris on the other. The next day Rich Miller followed up with a little more info on the mailer and as you can see in the comments some of his commenters reported receiving the mailer despite not having a Democratic primary voting history and another one of my Twitter followers mentioned that both he and his wife received one so whoever set up their data file apparently didn’t household it. Durkan has raised a lot of money so it’s a race to keep an eye on.
 
Compliance Issues
  • Last Friday NBC5’s Ward Room blog posted an item about a new ad attacking Ken Dunkin that debuted last Wednesday from Citizens Against Corruption, chaired by William J. Kelly. There is no active committee named “Citizens Against Corruption” registered with either the Illinois State Board of Elections or the FEC. In fact, there is no active committee with the word “corruption” in its name registered with the State Board of Elections and none in Illinois that are registered with the FEC.
  • On Thursday 109th district Republican House candidate John Curtis (not to be confused with 93rd district Democratic House candidate John Curtis) filed a D-1 to create his candidate committee named “Citizens to Bring Illinois Back“. Per 5/9-2. (b): “The name of each candidate political committee shall identify the name of the public official or candidate supported by the candidate political committee.” He’ll have to amend his D-1 to change the name of his committee to include his own name.
  • On Wednesday I tweeted that I thought 5 General Assembly races had had enough independent expenditure spending to exceed the $100K threshold to remove the contribution limits for those offices. After studying the code on independent expenditures more closely I now believe that was in error and only 3 General Assembly races have had enough (and the right kind of) independent expenditure spending to remove the contribution limits for those offices. Upon closer reading of 5/9-8.5 (h-5) and 5/9-8.5 (h-10) that only independent expenditures made by natural persons or independent expenditure committees that aggregate to over $100K (as opposed to independent expenditures made by party committees or PACs) will trigger the provision that removes the contribution limits for that office. Based on that narrower reading 3 General Assembly races should already meet that standard, the 5th House (Ken Dukin, IllinoisGO), the 72nd House (Brandi McGuire, Liberty Principles PAC) and the 50th Senate (Bryce Benton, Liberty Principles PAC). The State Board’s Contribution Limits Off List appears to be up to date.
 

You can find the complete list of all the funds available, every A-1 filed, every B-1 filed and a complete listing of all the candidates and districts in our Racing Forms. The Illinois Racing Form covers every General Assembly race while the Cook County Racing Form covers all the countywide, judicial, MWRD and Chicago committeemen races, full details below.

The Illinois Racing Form
  • District profiles for every General Assembly race including district map, current candidate listing, candidate headshots and past electoral performance.
  • Current financial status for each candidate’s campaign committee as well as other relevant committees, such as the Governor, legislative leaders and IE’s.
  • Latest candidate filings.
  • Candidates’ social media presences, including websites, Facebook , LinkedIn and Twitter.
The Cook County Racing Form
  • District profiles for every countywide, judicial, MWRD and Chicago committeeman race including district map, current candidate listing, candidate headshots and past electoral performance.
  • Current financial status for each candidate’s campaign committee as well as other relevant or related committees.
  • Latest candidate filings.
  • Candidates’ social media presences, including websites, Facebook , LinkedIn and Twitter.

Weekly Roundup – February 12th, 2016

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I’ve been tweeting a lot of interesting updates from recent disclosures and I realize that the volume is so great that it’s starting to turn into white noise for most followers so I thought I’d do a weekly roundup to try to summarize the week’s interesting news and organize these developments into a format you can follow.

Reminder:
  • A-1 reports are for contributions received by the committee of $1,000 or more.
  • B-1 reports are for independent expenditures made independent of the candidate (cannot be coordinated).
  • Regular expenditures (not independent expenditures) are not reported until the quarterly filings are due, next on 3/31.
 
2nd House (D) – Theresa Mah vs. Alex Acevedo
 
5th House (D) – Ken Dunkin (i) vs. Juliana Stratton
  • Last month IllinoisGO filed three B-1’s for Ken Dunkin for $240K for field work, production and mailings. (more on this at the bottom)
  • Last week Ken Dunkin filed an A-1 for $502K, including a $500K contribution from the Illinois Opportunity Project, it is believed to be the largest single donation ever for a General Assembly race. (more on this at the bottom)
  • Last week IllinoisGO filed three B-1’s for Ken Dunkin for $36K for mailings, another $36K for mailings (this time technically opposing Juliana Stratton) and $19K for printing.
  • On Sunday Juliana Stratton filed an A-1 for $235K in labor money from AFSCME, SEIU and the carpenters.
  • On Monday IllinoisGO filed a B-1 for Ken Dunkin for $10K for production.
  • On Tuesday IllinoisGO filed a B-1 for Ken Dunkin for $30Kfor TV ads.
  • On Wednesday IllinoisGO filed a B-1 for Ken Dunkin for $3Kfor field work.
 
22nd House (D) – Michael Madigan (i) vs. Jason Gonzales vs. Joe Barboza vs. Grasiela Rodriguez
  • Late last month a new independent expenditure committee was created, Illinois United for Change that was later seeded with $100K including $50K from Hull Investments.
  • Last Friday they started spending some of that money, filing a B-1 in support of Jason Gonzales for $28K for field work, palm cards and robo calls.
  • On Tuesday Jason Gonzales filed an A-1 for $16,400.
  • Worth noting: the four funds controlled by Speaker Madigan have an estimated funds available of almost $9 million.
 
66th House (R) – Paul Serwatka vs. Daniel Wilbrandt vs. Allen Skillicorn vs. Carolyn Schofield
 
72nd House (D) – Jeff Jacobs vs. Michael Halpin vs. Katelyn Hotle vs. Glen Evans
  • Last Friday Democratic Majority, the leadership PAC for the House Democrats, filed its first B-1 of the season for $3,730.07 for postage opposing Katelyn Hotle.
  • On Tuesday Democratic Majority once again filed a B-1 for $3,730.07 for postage opposing Katelyn Hotle.
 
72nd House (R) – Brandi McGuire vs. Jordan Thoms
 
95th House (R) – Avery Bourne (i) vs. Dennis Scobbie vs. Christopher Hicks
  • On Monday the Illinois Republican Party filed a B-1 for $238K for Avery Bourne for advertising and production.
  • Also on Monday the Illinois Republican Party filed a B-1 for $7K for Avery Bourne for consulting and mail.
 
99th House (R) – Sara Wojcicki Jimenez (i) vs. Kent Gray
 
5th Senate (D) – Patricia Van Pelt (i) vs. Bob Fioretti
 
19th Senate (D) – Michael Hastings (i) vs. Max Solomon
 
26th Senate (R) – Dan McConchie vs. Casey Urlacher vs. Martin McLaughlin
 
50th Senate (R) – Sam McCann (i) vs. Bryce Benton
 
58th Senate (R) – Paul Schimpf vs. Sharee Langenstein
 
Cook County State’s Attorney (D) – Anita Alvarez (i) vs. Kim Foxx vs. Donna More
 
Other Notable Contributions Received
  • Continuing a trend that was very evident if you closely studied the fundraising totals of targeted House Dems from last quarter those targeted candidates have been raising very large sums into their candidate committees in what appears to be part of a team approach. Last quarter 11 House Dems raised over $247K (3 of them were over $500K). Last Tuesday four House Dems all filed similar A-1’s:
  • Last week AFSCME added $200K in member dues to their PAC. So far this year they’ve added $800K to their PAC.
  • Last Friday Julie Morrison filed an A-1 for $50K.
  • On Monday Support Independent Maps filed an A-1 for $35K. They now have an estimated funds available of $545K.
  • On Tuesday Deb Conroy filed an A-1 for about $94K, including $53,900 from the Engineers and $25K from AFSCME.
  • On Tuesday Water Rec candidate Marty Durkan filed an A-1 for about $88K.
  • On Wednesday the National Association of REALTORS Fund replenished their PAC fund with $106K of member dues. They started the year with only $500 in the bank so this A-1 represents the bulk of their current spending power. Later that afternoon they spent almost all of that money on the various independent expenditures outlined above.
  • On Wednesday the Chicagoland Operators Joint Labor-Management PAC bulked up their PAC fund with $364K of member money. They began the year with $912K on hand so now they have about $1.275 million available.
  • On Wednesday judicial candidate Gregory Lapapa filed an A-1 for a loan of $50K of what appears to be his own money.
 
Other Interesting Developments
 
Compliance Issues

The Democratic primary between Ken Dunkin and Juliana Stratton is not just heated and expensive, it is so unique that it is triggering some sections of the election code and State Board rules that are not often needed.

  • Are B-1’s subject to rule 100.70(c) of the State Board rules? After reading through the language once again I can’t find anything to suggest that they aren’t. Independent expenditures are a relatively new phenomenon that didn’t exist until contribution limits became law in 2011 so it’s entirely possible that this issue hasn’t been addressed before, at least as it applies to B-1 filings. Rule 100.70(c) is the “conduits rule”, the rule that prevents committees from hiding the true recipient of a disbursement by paying an intermediary who acts as a conduit and then pays out another. It’s the rule that forces committees to itemize their credit card bills and payroll rather than just showing a lump sum to the credit card company or payroll processing company. IllinoisGO filed a B-1 that included a $140,705.82 lump sum payment for “field work” that seems very likely to be subject to the conduits rule and if B-1’s are subject to this rule then their method of disclosure is probably not in compliance. If you’re interested in reading some more about rule 100.70(c) I went into it in some depth when discussing the Governor’s gift card controversy last summer.
  • Committees that receive more that 33% of their funds from a single source have to list that source as a Sponsoring Entity. The $500,000 donation from the Illinois Opportunity Project to Ken Dunkin is large enough that it may trigger this provision, in which case Dunkin’s committee would have to file an amended D-1 and list the IOP as its sponsoring entity.
 

You can find the complete list of all the funds available, every A-1 filed, every B-1 filed and a complete listing of all the candidates and districts in our Racing Forms. The Illinois Racing Form covers every General Assembly race while the Cook County Racing Form covers all the countywide, judicial, MWRD and Chicago committeemen races, full details below.

The Illinois Racing Form
  • District profiles for every General Assembly race including district map, current candidate listing, candidate headshots and past electoral performance.
  • Current financial status for each candidate’s campaign committee as well as other relevant committees, such as the Governor, legislative leaders and IE’s.
  • Latest candidate filings.
  • Candidates’ social media presences, including websites, Facebook , LinkedIn and Twitter.
The Cook County Racing Form
  • District profiles for every countywide, judicial, MWRD and Chicago committeeman race including district map, current candidate listing, candidate headshots and past electoral performance.
  • Current financial status for each candidate’s campaign committee as well as other relevant or related committees.
  • Latest candidate filings.
  • Candidates’ social media presences, including websites, Facebook , LinkedIn and Twitter.

The Money Race for the State House

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Last Friday was the filing deadline for the 4th quarter 2015 campaign finance reports (D-2’s) and since we have all of that data I thought it would be interesting to update this tweet with a more up to date and thorough look at the state of the money race for the State House. When we last looked at this data it was late December, two and a half months into the quarter and so we had a lot of recent contribution data via A-1 filings but our data on spending and true cash on hand was quite out of date. The data we have now is much closer to the start of the filing period and these estimates are much closer to the true picture.

The race for the State House began almost right after the 2014 election when then Governor-elect Rauner and his allies put $20 million into his campaign committee and later created another Independent Expenditure committee, Turnaround Illinois, with $4.25 million. The Governor, as leader of his party, has pledged to use his resources this cycle to help elect more Republicans to the General Assembly. The Democrats have been playing catch up ever since and by some measures may have actually passed the Republicans in the fundraising race.

Total Raised (including in-kinds) for Q4 2015

Democratic Committee Q4 Raised & In-kind
Democratic Party of Illinois $1,786,444.01
Friends of Michael J. Madigan $1,747,639.53
Democratic Majority $1,632,063.67
13th Ward Democratic Org $638,950.00
Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate $884,520.00
Senate Democratic Victory Fund $1,554,358.12
Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman $476,011.73
Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $637,882.30
Dem Senate Candidates $1,792,328.42
Dem House Candidates $7,190,292.50
Total $18,340,490.28
Republican Committee Q4 Raised & Inkind
Citizens for Rauner, Inc $4,199.00
Turnaround Illinois $1,320.78
Illinois Republican Party $179,912.70
Citizens for Durkin $344,572.77
House Republican Organization $282,875.47
Citizens for Christine Radogno $303,275.39
Republican State Senate Campaign Committee $306,385.96
Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $259,036.64
Rep Senate Candidates $705,473.89
Rep House Candidates $1,185,456.33
Total $3,572,508.93

The Democrats outraised the Republicans in the 4th quarter, that was expected since they have been playing catch up. What is quite noticeable however is the disparity, the Democrats raised roughly $15 million more than the Republicans this quarter, and not just in leadership, much of it going into the actual candidate committees. Aside from Durkin and Radogno the only Republican campaign committee to raise six figures last quarter was Jil Tracy ($105K). On the Democratic side aside from Madigan and Cullerton 19 other Democratic campaign committees raised more than $100K including 11 House committees over $247K and 3 over $500K.

Now let’s look at the current cash position of all those involved by combining the 12/31 cash on hand, plus the 12/31 investment total plus any reported A-1 amounts so far this quarter.

Current Cash Position

Democratic Committee Q4 COH Q4 INV Q1 A-1s Est Funds Avail
Democratic Party of Illinois $2,394,998.90 $0.00 $3,900.00 $2,398,898.90
Friends of Michael J. Madigan $2,157,364.97 $0.00 $10,600.00 $2,167,964.97
Democratic Majority $2,732,949.01 $0.00 $1,214.00 $2,734,163.01
13th Ward Democratic Org $1,254,380.90 $0.00 $55,000.00 $1,309,380.90
Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate $1,211,497.20 $300,300.46 $0.00 $1,511,797.66
Senate Democratic Victory Fund $2,145,308.24 $404,232.00 $17,475.00 $2,567,015.24
Committee to Support John Cullerton
for State Central Committeeman
$695,817.67 $0.00 $0.00 $695,817.67
Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $3,597,832.59 $42.36 $4,600.00 $3,602,474.95
Dem Senate Candidates $4,722,092.16 $220,007.00 $75,681.80 $5,017,780.96
Dem House Candidates $13,052,436.87 $770,871.69 $571,430.80 $14,394,739.36
Total $33,964,678.51 $1,695,453.51 $739,901.60 $36,400,033.62
Republican Committee Q4 COH Q4 INV Q1 A-1s Est Funds Avail
Citizens for Rauner, Inc $19,555,040.91 $0.00 $0.00 $19,555,040.91
Turnaround Illinois $2,595,379.90 $0.00 $0.00 $2,595,379.90
Illinois Republican Party $400,498.12 $0.00 $21,600.00 $422,098.12
Citizens for Durkin $773,783.80 $0.00 $9,500.00 $783,283.80
House Republican Organization $290,416.05 $0.00 $14,500.00 $304,916.05
Citizens for Christine Radogno $534,402.53 $0.00 $2,500.00 $536,902.53
Republican State Senate Campaign Committee $427,720.49 $0.00 $60,600.00 $488,320.49
Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $944,113.77 $0.00 $0.00 $944,113.77
Rep Senate Candidates $1,447,659.18 $45,300.00 $85,500.00 $1,578,459.18
Rep House Candidates $3,198,673.67 $0.00 $209,343.02 $3,408,016.69
Total $30,167,688.42 $45,300.00 $403,543.02 $30,616,531.44

As of right now there is roughly $67 million sitting in the accounts of various campaign committees waiting to be spent on General Assembly races this cycle and the Dems have about a $6 million advantage ($36.4m to $30.6m). That’s a lot of money.

However it does not take into account all of the money that has already been spent. Candidates have been hiring staff, buying yard signs, doing polls and spending money on any number of useful needs that will help them come election time. So let’s combine the totals above with the amounts already spent by each committee (plus in-kinds) in 2015.

Cycle Spending Ability

Democratic Committee 2015 Spent Q4 COH Q4 INV Q1 A-1s Cycle Spending Ability
Democratic Party of Illinois $466,425.77 $2,394,998.90 $0.00 $3,900.00 $2,865,324.67
Friends of Michael J. Madigan $588,244.74 $2,157,364.97 $0.00 $10,600.00 $2,756,209.71
Democratic Majority $329,315.45 $2,732,949.01 $0.00 $1,214.00 $3,063,478.46
13th Ward Democratic Org $181,628.13 $1,254,380.90 $0.00 $55,000.00 $1,491,009.03
Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate $568,926.16 $1,211,497.20 $300,300.46 $0.00 $2,080,723.82
Senate Democratic Victory Fund $1,049,868.27 $2,145,308.24 $404,232.00 $17,475.00 $3,616,883.51
Committee to Support John Cullerton
for State Central Committeeman
$42,706.07 $695,817.67 $0.00 $0.00 $738,523.74
Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $1,464,126.75 $3,597,832.59 $42.36 $4,600.00 $5,066,601.70
Dem Senate Candidates $2,894,326.73 $4,722,092.16 $220,007.00 $75,681.80 $7,912,107.69
Dem House Candidates $5,143,207.88 $13,052,436.87 $770,871.69 $571,430.80 $19,537,947.24
Total $12,728,775.95 $33,964,678.51 $1,695,453.51 $739,901.60 $49,128,809.57
Republican Committee 2015 Spent Q4 COH Q4 INV Q1 A-1s Cycle Spending Ability
Citizens for Rauner, Inc $1,372,553.02 $19,555,040.91 $0.00 $0.00 $20,927,593.93
Turnaround Illinois $1,659,222.07 $2,595,379.90 $0.00 $0.00 $4,254,601.97
Illinois Republican Party $652,689.76 $400,498.12 $0.00 $21,600.00 $1,074,787.88
Citizens for Durkin $405,035.31 $773,783.80 $0.00 $9,500.00 $1,188,319.11
House Republican Organization $427,965.08 $290,416.05 $0.00 $14,500.00 $732,881.13
Citizens for Christine Radogno $139,374.47 $534,402.53 $0.00 $2,500.00 $676,277.00
Republican State Senate Campaign Committee $575,939.69 $427,720.49 $0.00 $60,600.00 $1,064,260.18
Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $458,611.18 $944,113.77 $0.00 $0.00 $1,402,724.95
Rep Senate Candidates $997,741.47 $1,447,659.18 $45,300.00 $85,500.00 $2,576,200.65
Rep House Candidates $2,203,396.72 $3,198,673.67 $0.00 $209,343.02 $5,611,413.41
Total $8,892,528.77 $30,167,688.42 $45,300.00 $403,543.02 $39,509,060.21

Even if all of these committees never raise another penny they already have the ability to spend almost $90 million this cycle and it’s only January. Despite starting from well behind Governor Rauner’s significant funds the Democrats are currently able to spend $10 million more than the Republicans. However the Governor and his allies have demonstrated that they have very deep pockets and they can make up the difference any time they choose. Not every penny will be spent of course, many of the Senators that are not up for election this cycle will likely save their money for their next election. Also a number of these districts have primary races and quite a bit of money will be spent on primaries rather than general election contests.

And then there’s the big elephant in the room, the $9 million that IllinoisGO has. They aren’t the only PAC with significant funds, here is a list of the top 25 other committees that could get involved if they choose.

Committee Q4 COH Q4 INV Q1 A-1 Est Funds Avail
IllinoisGO IE $8,999,970.00 $0.00 $0.00 $8,999,970.00
Friends of Edward M Burke $2,280,827.14 $6,356,353.45 $0.00 $8,637,180.59
Liberty Principles PAC $2,746,295.33 $0.00 $1,818,000.00 $4,564,295.33
Laborers’ Political League – Great Lakes Region $2,345,342.74 $0.00 $0.00 $2,345,342.74
Citizens for Lisa Madigan $2,137,044.04 $0.00 $0.00 $2,137,044.04
Illinois State Medical Society PAC $399,945.90 $1,230,136.00 $0.00 $1,630,081.90
Carpenters Helping in the Political Process (CHIPP) $1,483,716.29 $0.00 $0.00 $1,483,716.29
Stand for Children IL PAC $1,372,305.91 $0.00 $0.00 $1,372,305.91
The Burnham Committee $1,309,846.28 $0.00 $0.00 $1,309,846.28
Illinois PAC for Education (IPACE) $1,164,664.87 $0.00 $0.00 $1,164,664.87
Citizens for Alderman Reilly $1,006,703.57 $0.00 $29,000.00 $1,035,703.57
Cook County Democratic Party $977,199.32 $0.00 $10,000.00 $987,199.32
REALTORS Political Action Committee $943,064.66 $0.00 $4,000.00 $947,064.66
Roofers’ Political Educational and Legislative Fund $174,347.22 $749,380.67 $0.00 $923,727.89
Illinois Federation of Teachers COPE $754,802.93 $0.00 $163,746.73 $918,549.66
Chicagoland Operators Joint Labor-Management PAC $912,148.74 $0.00 $0.00 $912,148.74
Dan Rutherford Campaign Committee $14,974.34 $887,432.00 $0.00 $902,406.34
Citizens for Judy Baar Topinka $840,769.03 $0.00 $0.00 $840,769.03
Committee to Elect Joseph Berrios Assessor $836,485.17 $0.00 $0.00 $836,485.17
Friends of Suarez $72,823.28 $750,000.00 $0.00 $822,823.28
Citizens for Giannoulias $779,764.79 $0.00 $0.00 $779,764.79
14th Ward Regular Democratic Org $722,156.15 $0.00 $0.00 $722,156.15
Laborers’ Political Action and Education League $720,332.88 $0.00 $0.00 $720,332.88
Friends of Anita Alvarez $697,191.18 $0.00 $7,000.00 $704,191.18
Friends for Susana Mendoza $674,701.28 $0.00 $4,738.71 $679,439.99

The battle for the State House in 2016 is going to be intense. There is already almost $90 million in play, it will certainly eclipse the $100 million mark and may push to $150 million.

We will keep an eye on it for you and we’ll keep you up to date. If you want to track all of these races and see the campaign fundraising totals in real-time subscribe to the Illinois Racing Form, it’s only $15. We have been updating weekly but once the candidate objections are finalized we will probably set up the computer to publish an updated version daily, coming within the next week or two. For just $15 you can check to see the latest fundraising totals for every race every day. We put a lot of work into it so if you find this info in any way useful do us a favor and sign up.

Note: if you’d like to check my math or investigate and calculate further the data I used to create the tables above can be found here.

 

The Downstate Vote

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Bruce Rauner recently announced that he is going to spend the remainder of the race campaigning in and around the Chicago area. There is some decent logic behind this strategy, it has long been the conventional wisdom that Bill Brady lost the 2010 Governor’s race in the suburbs, and the numbers back that up. Take a look at the table below that shows the performance of Brady (Governor, lost) and Mark Kirk (US Senate, won) in their 2010 respective races by region (expanded collars).

General Election Republican Performance – Expanded Collars (FAQ)

Region 2010 Kirk 2010 Brady Difference Vote Share
Cook County (all) 31.63% 28.61% 3.02% 37.51%
___Chicago (only) 19.47% 17.41% 2.06% 18.50%
___Cook Burbs (only) 43.47% 39.50% 3.97% 19.02%
Collars (11) 56.36% 52.93% 3.43% 28.42%
Downstate (90) 59.26% 59.18% 0.08% 34.07%
Total: 48.01% 45.94% 2.07% 100.00%

The expanded collars table groups “downstate” as the 90 counties outside the Chicago media market. You can see that in 2010 it made up a little more than 34% of the vote and the performance of Brady and Kirk is nearly identical, even though Brady is considered to be from the conservative wing of the Republican party while Kirk is less so. Even though Brady is from McLean County and Kirk is from the Chicago suburbrs, the voters in these downstate counties rated them equally and their performance was essentially the same.

The biggest difference was in the Chicago media market. The difference between the two candidates in the Chicago suburbs was about 4% but it varied by township. The difference was most pronounced in the affluent north and western suburban townships:

Township 2010 Kirk 2010 Brady Difference
Northfield 59.17% 49.37% 9.80%
New Trier 57.55% 48.81% 8.74%
Niles 42.87% 36.03% 6.84%
River Forest 47.31% 40.62% 6.69%
Wheeling 57.76% 51.31% 6.45%
Riverside 51.76% 46.42% 5.34%

In the 11 counties in the Chicago media market other than Cook County (collectively referred to here as the Collars) the difference between Kirk and Brady was about 3 and a half points with the Lake County numbers the most pronounced:

County 2010 Kirk 2010 Brady Difference
Lake 56.59% 50.10% 6.49%
Kankakee 56.32% 52.93% 3.39%
DuPage 57.50% 54.31% 3.19%
LaSalle 54.16% 51.08% 3.08%
Kendall 57.71% 54.96% 2.75%
McHenry 59.53% 56.87% 2.66%
Will 52.66% 50.29% 2.37%
DeKalb 54.16% 52.02% 2.14%
Kane 55.83% 53.79% 2.04%
Grundy 56.89% 54.86% 2.03%
Iroquois 74.62% 73.44% 1.18%

If the Rauner campaign can win over the Kirk-Quinn voters from 2010 they could have enough votes to win the election and since all of those Kirk-Quinn voters from 2010 are in the Chicago media market it makes sense for them to focus their campaign there now that we have reached the home stretch.

But what about Pat Quinn and the other candidates? 2010 was a strange year for Democratic performance downstate in that it was abnormally low. Take a look at the table below showing the Democratic performance of the candidates in competitive contested elections over the last few decades in the downstate counties outside of the Chicago media market:

Candidate Downstate
2008 Obama 50.81%
1996 Durbin 50.20%
1998 Poshard 50.04%
1990 Hartigan 48.09%
2002 Madigan 46.52%
2000 Gore 46.52%
2002 Blagojevich 46.41%
2006 Giannoulias 45.13%
2012 Obama 45.11%
2004 Kerry 44.89%
2006 Blagojevich 39.72%
2002 Dart 39.24%
1998 Mosely-Braun 36.53%
2010 Kelly 35.40%
2010 Quinn 33.99%
2010 Giannoulias 33.82%
1994 Netsch 28.75%

In 2010 Pat Quinn, Alexi Giannoulias and Robin Kelly all performed worse than Carol Moseley-Braun did in 1998 outside the Chicago media market, and she was carrying a lot of baggage by then while unsuccessfully trying to fend off a well funded challenger. On this list only Dawn Clark Netsch performed worse than the competitive Democratic candidates of 2010 and she lost in a blowout by 30 points. In 2002 Tom Dart lost his race for Treasurer to the popular Topinka and in 2006 the Republicans actively campaigned against Blagojevich in their legislative campaigns tying the local Democratic candidates to the unpopular downstate incumbent governor, yet both of those candidates performed more than 5 points higher than Quinn and Giannoulias in the 90 counties outside of the Chicago media market.

They weren’t just losing, they were losing downstate counties that had a history of going to Democrats like Madison, Fulton and Franklin by almost 20 points:

Candidate Madison
1990 Hartigan 57.47%
1996 Durbin 56.98%
2002 Blagojevich 55.97%
2006 Blagojevich 55.31%
2008 Obama 53.75%
2000 Gore 53.17%
2006 Giannoulias 53.13%
1998 Poshard 52.01%
2004 Kerry 51.26%
2002 Madigan 51.23%
2012 Obama 48.11%
2002 Dart 47.47%
2010 Kelly 42.72%
2010 Quinn 40.31%
2010 Giannoulias 39.97%
1998 Mosely-Braun 38.79%
1994 Netsch 35.42%
Candidate Fulton
2008 Obama 59.62%
2006 Giannoulias 56.70%
1996 Durbin 56.61%
2002 Blagojevich 55.02%
2000 Gore 54.92%
2002 Madigan 54.77%
2012 Obama 54.23%
1998 Poshard 54.19%
2004 Kerry 53.30%
1990 Hartigan 50.54%
2002 Dart 50.23%
1998 Mosely-Braun 46.60%
2006 Blagojevich 45.84%
2010 Kelly 42.85%
2010 Quinn 40.81%
2010 Giannoulias 40.21%
1994 Netsch 32.58%
Candidate Franklin
1998 Poshard 83.74%
1990 Hartigan 65.08%
1996 Durbin 60.23%
2006 Giannoulias 58.52%
2002 Blagojevich 58.32%
2002 Madigan 56.83%
2000 Gore 53.10%
2006 Blagojevich 50.89%
2002 Dart 50.31%
1998 Mosely-Braun 48.75%
2008 Obama 47.64%
2004 Kerry 45.56%
2010 Quinn 43.53%
2010 Kelly 42.97%
2012 Obama 40.49%
2010 Giannoulias 40.23%
1994 Netsch 37.27%

The downstate numbers for the Democratic candidates in 2010 weren’t just bad, they were historically bad. So the question becomes, was this a once cycle free fall or the new normal?

One simple answer is that by 2012 Barack Obama was back up to 45.11% in the downstate 90 counties. As I mentioned before some of those numbers were probably helped in the Quad Cities by Iowa advertising, take a look at the map of Obama’s performance by county and you can see that his numbers in the Quad Cities media market are noticeably better than his performance in the surrounding areas. But either way, one cycle later and those numbers bounced back to a historical norm.

The Presidential race was the only statewide race in 2012 but the Democrats performed strongly in a bunch of targeted State Senate races as well. First time candidate Andy Manar won the 48th Senate District (1D, 1R House members) by more than 10 points in a central Illinois district that stretches from Springfield to Decatur and down to eastern Madison County. (you can view district maps here) In the 36th SD (2D House members) up near the Quad Cities Mike Jacobs won re-election by more than 9 points. In the 46th SD (1D, 1R House memebers) in the Peoria area Dave Koehler won re-election by more than 8 points. In the 47th SD (2R House members) that runs from Quincy to Galesburg to almost Springfield John Sullivan was re-elected by almost 13 points. In the Metro East’s 56th SD (1D, 1R House members) Bill Haine won by more than 17 points. And in deep southern Illinois’ 59th SD (2D House members) perennial target Gary Forby won by more than 18 points.

The historically low downstate numbers for the Democrats in 2010 didn’t carry over into the 2012 races. What can we expect in 2014 though? It’s not a presidential year so the electorate will be smaller and more Republican leaning than in presidential years. Also Illinois native and favorite son Obama will not be at the top of the ticket, instead it will be Dick Durbin in what looks to be a pretty safe race and then Pat Quinn who remains unpopular downstate, even among his own party.

In 2014 the Governor’s race was the only statewide primary race on the Democratic side to feature more than one candidate. Pat Quinn faced off against little known candidate Tio Hardiman, the former executive director of Cease Fire. Hardiman had lost his job at Cease Fire after his wife filed a domestic violence case against him, later withdrawn. Prior to running Hardiman also had a different guilty plea to a misdemeanor for domestic violence against a former wife expunged from his record.

You would not expect that a Chicago former executive director of Cease Fire with a history of domestic violence to become the preferred candidate of downstate Democrats but in the 2014 Democratic primary for Governor that is what happened. In this case it likely had less to do with people voting for Hardiman and more likely these votes were cast against Quinn in protest.

First take a look at the map of Hardiman’s performance in the City of Chicago, it’s very consistent with no wards above 30%. Next look at his performance map in the Cook County suburbs, again the same consistency with no townships above 30%. Then look at his county by county performance map, the difference jumps out at you, especially in southern Illinois. Hardiman won Marion county with more than 72% of the vote. In 6 other counties (Alexander, Clinton, Jefferson, Shelby, Union and Washington) he took more than 60% of the vote. The southern half of the map is littered with counties painted shades of blue, green or grey for Hardiman. Once you get outside of Cook and the traditional 5 collar counties everything is over 30%.

It may have been true that 2010 was a historically poor year for Democrats downstate that won’t automatically translate to a repeat performance for Democrats this cycle but it’s also true that Quinn is facing a popularity issue this cycle with downstate members of his own party. If he’s that unpopular among Democrats it’s likely to be true of downstate independents as well.

There is natural room for vote growth for Quinn in his downstate numbers. Even if he can only muster being as popular as Blagojevich was during his 2006 re-elect that would still improve his downstate numbers by about 5 points and a 5 point improvement downstate would translate to about 60,000 votes his way (and 60,000 away from his opponent) based on 2010 numbers. The mid 40’s looks to be about the sweet spot for a typical Democratic candidate in a contested, competitive election, a far cry from the 34% Quinn took in 2010, but if he could somehow increase his downstate performance by 10 points it would be worth 120,000 votes his way (and 120,000 away from his opponent). In 2010 the race was decided by about 30,000 votes so these are meaningful numbers.

But in order to do that he’s going to have to campaign hard there and win over voters that were clearly very angry with him back in March. Unlike Rauner who will focus like a laser on the City and suburbs, Quinn’s path to victory likely includes a significant downstate component.

And what about the downstate Democratic candidates for Treasurer and Comptroller Mike Frerichs and Shelia Simon? Both are native downstaters who can likely count on above average support from the area. But if they’re looking at the very visible Quinn anger displayed in the primary can they afford to risk being lumped in with Quinn downstate if his numbers don’t improve? I am sure they would like to have the luxury to count on longstanding downstate support so they could focus their time and money on the Chicago media market but if Quinn’s downstate numbers don’t improve is that a risk they can afford to take? The Democrats have three downstate candidates on their statewide slate this year, Durbin, Simon and Frerichs, a more favorable downstate slate over recent cycles. They should be well positioned to rebound in their downstate performance but it will be interesting to see how the whole ticket performs and where the candidates and their campaigns spend their time and money to capitalize on the geographic makeup of their statewide ticket.

Updated Data: 2014 Illinois Primary Results

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I mentioned this on Twitter but forgot to update the front page. All of the 2014 Illinois primary data has been completely updated. All of the vote total analysis in the ANALYSIS section is up to date as well as the MAPS and even the ELECTIONS page profiles. If you’re interested in the primary postmortem scroll down below, it turns out our election night numbers were pretty accurate and all the items held up when compared to the actual certified vote totals.

Post Mortem: IL-GOV 2014 Primary

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Thank you to all who spent time with us last night. We had a lot of fun and I have leftover pizza in the fridge so that’s a plus but I’m not sure that we’ll do that again. It’s very labor intensive. My hope is that enough people saw how you can cut and slice all the data that comes in and make it much more useful and helpful than simply knowing the running total for the candidates. Primaries are one thing, but come the general election there is even more useful available data and even more ways to use it. The news organizations get a ton of useful data throughout the night and simply don’t tell you very much about it or display it in a useful way and they don’t put it into a historical context. With the help of a bunch of great volunteers we were able to do that for one race, imagine if they programmed their computers to output it for all the races. I really hope they do.

Ok, on to some observations: (remember none of these results are official and when the official certified numbers are released in about a month there will be some minor changes)

  • In 2010 Dillard got 155,334 votes and in 2014 the Tribune is reporting 100% of precincts in and his total is 301,869, he almost doubled his output from 2010. Now the big question is whether Dillard was the beneficiary of Republicans coming home to him or was the push to get Democrat and independent crossover votes the key to his success? In the 2010 Republican Governor’s primary there were 767,485 total votes, for 2014 the Tribune total currently shows 808,409 with 100% reporting (that number will still likely go up after some absentee, vote by mail, provisional and overseas ballots get included in the final certified totals). So Dillard increased his vote total by about 146K votes while the overall size of the vote only increased by about 41K, that means one of two things:
    1. Dillard’s surge came mostly from regular Republicans.
    2. Dillard’s surge came from from crossover Democrats and independents while at the same time many regular Republicans stayed home. This seems the less likely of the two, in 2006 735,810 voted in the Republican Gubernatorial primary while in 2002 that number was 917,828. Last night’s total Republican primary voters falls within a pretty normal range.
  • The most surprising numbers (to me at least) were Dillard’s downstate numbers compared to Brady. According to our numbers in the downstate 96 counties Dillard beat Brady 40-19. In the 90 counties outside the Chicago Media Market Dillard beat Brady 41-20. The only media market where Brady beat Dillard was Evansville (29-26) a media market so small it only has 5 counties. In the Peoria media market (Brady’s home turf) Dillard beat him 35-25, in the Paducah market (deep southern Illinois) Dillard beat him 49-19, in the Quincy market it was 65-8. Downstate went overwhelmingly for Dillard.
  • It was a much different story in Cook and the collars though, this is where Rauner won the race. Rauner had a slight edge on Dillard in the city proper 43-39 (about 5% of the statewide vote) but Rauner did even better in the 5 collar counties besting Dillard 48-36 (about 28% of the statewide vote) and his best area was the Cook County suburbs where he bested Dillard 52-32 (about 16% of the statewide vote). Dillard lost his home county of DuPage 46-39.
  • It is going to be fun to look at the color coded maps in this race (will be available sometime after the totals are certified next month), particularly the township by township totals in the Cook County suburbs. I’m guessing Rauner ran up some pretty big numbers in the affluent northern suburbs but I’m just as eager to see who won the blue collar NW & SW side townships. I bet there will be some interesting data there.
  • Downstate Dillard did well and bested Rauner overall (40-31 in the downstate 96 and 41-29 in the 90 counties outside the Chicago media market) but Rauner still had pockets where he did well. Rauner won the Quad Cities media market and almost fought to a draw in the Rockford media market. Remember, when these candidates (or outside groups) buy ads they don’t appear on every channel in the state, they generally appear in some but not all media markets. The data that I wish this website had but doesn’t is the campaign spending for/against candidates by media market. It would make this analysis a lot more fun. I’m told that at least some of this data is publicly available, depending on how labor intensive it is that may be on the future to-do list.
  • Incumbent Pat Quinn gave up 28% to an underfunded and not well known opponent, but anyone who says this means trouble for him in the general election is just baiting for pageviews. Quinn may or may not win the general but the outcome of that race does not correlate to his primary election results. The last two incumbent governors who ran for re-election faced a primary opponent. In 1994 incumbent Jim Edgar gave up 25% to Jack Roeser in their Republican Gubernatorial primary and he went on to win his general election by 30 points. In 2006 incumbent Blagojevich gave up 29% to Edwin Eisendrath and he went on to win the general by a larger margin (10%) than he won his 2002 gubernatorial (7%).

Last, the law was changed last year so that starting with this election all 110 election authorities in this state have to provide the State Board of Elections with precinct-level results in all of these races. Depending on how usable that data is we could potentially format it, collate it and have some fun with it. For example, it would be interesting to know which state rep/sen districts Rauner and Quinn performed the best/worst in. At least it would give them a pretty good idea where they need to shore up their base. Hopefully it is data we can use.

Election Night Live

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Update: Sorry we didn’t update this post throughout the night. Things got much busier than I anticipated and I didn’t have time. We did throw out some Tweets though and I’ve copied and pasted them below.

As promised we are bringing live election results for the Illinois Gubernatorial Primary tonight.

Live Election Results Dashboard

As the night goes on we may share any interesting items of note by updating this post and/or on Twitter at @ILElectionData.