3/31 Filing Totals

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It’s early in the cycle so it’s best not to read too much into these. Here are the totals for the statewide, leadership and party committees.

Committee 3/31 Raised 3/31 CoH Debt A-1s Since Est Funds Avail
Citizens for Rauner, Inc $44,630.01 $50,392,630.57 ($39,775.00) $14,000.00 $50,406,630.57
Evelyn for Illinois $3,110.20 $220.68 ($26,079.97) $0.00 $220.68
JB for Governor $200,000.00 $141,369.59 $0.00 $7,000,000.00 $7,141,369.59
Biss for Illinois $314,331.01 $1,592,081.07 $0.00 $1,000.00 $1,593,081.07
Kennedy for Illinois $1,026,097.21 $907,427.61 $0.00 $0.00 $907,427.61
Ameya Pawar for Governor $294,351.60 $246,203.05 $0.00 $1,000.00 $247,203.05
Friends of Ameya Pawar $19,994.00 $8,709.14 $0.00 $0.00 $8,709.14
Daiber for Governor $49,410.00 $37,530.17 ($20,000.00) $0.00 $37,530.17
Citizens for Lisa Madigan $86,620.00 $2,271,562.88 $0.00 $0.00 $2,271,562.88
Citizens for Jesse White $6,950.00 $353,222.95 $0.00 $0.00 $353,222.95
Friends for Susana Mendoza $265,064.76 $477,812.79 $0.00 $0.00 $477,812.79
Citizens for Leslie Munger $0.00 $123,973.47 ($5,500.00) $0.00 $123,973.47
Friends of Frerichs $58,925.00 $227,438.50 $0.00 $0.00 $227,438.50
Democratic Party of Illinois $93,512.46 $2,778,444.58 $0.00 $2,500.00 $2,780,944.58
Friends of Michael J Madigan $65,614.53 $2,460,728.95 $0.00 $7,000.00 $2,467,728.95
Democratic Majority $87,698.76 $1,089,702.72 $0.00 $0.00 $1,089,702.72
13th Ward Democratic Org $1,086.00 $778,119.03 $0.00 $0.00 $778,119.03
Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate $62,907.49 $250,888.90 $0.00 $2,000.00 $252,888.90
Senate Democratic Victory Fund $175,140.15 $38,854.97 $0.00 $43,117.51 $81,972.48
Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman $53,900.84 $24,340.61 $0.00 $0.00 $24,340.61
Illinois Republican Party $297,685.01 $172,111.55 $0.00 $62,500.00 $234,611.55
Citizens for Durkin $127,741.76 $155,763.85 $0.00 $0.00 $155,763.85
House Republican Organization $568,113.91 $101,654.03 $0.00 $0.00 $101,654.03
House Republican Leadership Committee $0.00 $51,287.68 $0.00 $0.00 $51,287.68
Citizens for Christine Radogno $16,500.00 $458,450.80 $0.00 $0.00 $458,450.80
Republican State Senate Campaign Committee $304,849.55 $344,708.12 $0.00 $20,000.00 $364,708.12

 

And here are the totals for Independent Expenditure Committees (superpacs).

 

Committee Cash on Hand A-1s Since B-1s Since Est Funds Available
Liberty Principles PAC $755,690.21 $0.00 $0.00 $755,690.21
INCS Action Independent Committee $185,654.03 $0.00 $0.00 $185,654.03
Illinois Association of REALTORS Fund $170,619.73 $0.00 $0.00 $170,619.73
Personal PAC Independent Committee $96,691.73 $0.00 $0.00 $96,691.73
Chicagoans United for Economic Security PAC $82,308.52 $0.00 $0.00 $82,308.52
Gun Violence Prevention Independent Expenditure PAC $45,832.51 $0.00 $0.00 $45,832.51
Two Rivers PAC $41,092.70 $0.00 $0.00 $41,092.70
Economic Freedom Alliance $31,838.08 $30,000.00 ($36,512.25) $25,325.83
Stand for Children IL IEC $24,948.03 $0.00 $0.00 $24,948.03
The JOBS PAC $7,577.76 $0.00 $0.00 $7,577.76
Parents and Neighbors for Quality Education $5,630.21 $23,864.00 ($25,539.02) $3,955.19
Chicago Forward $1,594.31 $0.00 $0.00 $1,594.31
GOPAC Illinois Legislative Fund $151.24 $0.00 $0.00 $151.24
Central Illinois for Responsible Government, NFP $144.64 $0.00 $0.00 $144.64
National Association of REALTORS Fund $100.54 $0.00 $0.00 $100.54
Diogenes of Illinois PAC $75.71 $0.00 $0.00 $75.71
Working America $0.00 $2,239.89 ($2,239.89) $0.00
Turnaround Illinois $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Illinois United for Change $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Republican State Leadership Committee- IE Committee $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Illinois Chamber IE Committee $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

 

Governor Amends Report, Deletes $78K in Contributions to Fellow Republicans

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Over the weekend Governor Rauner’s campaign committee filed an amended quarterly report for the quarter ending 6/30/2015. The most notable change in this amended report is a reduction in the transfers out from $400,000 to $322,000, a reduction of $78,000.

You may remember that in May of the first year of his administration Governor Rauner made a contribution to every Republican member of the General Assembly, both Senate and House, totaling $400,000. Here’s how it was described by the AP:

Gov. Bruce Rauner has started doling out money from his campaign fund to fellow Republicans as the Illinois Legislature approaches what could be difficult votes on several big issues.

Rauner divided $400,000 among every Republican member of the Illinois House and Senate, spokeswoman Catherine Kelly said Saturday.

The contributions, made Monday, come with just weeks to go before the May 31 end to the spring legislative session, and with Rauner looking to his GOP allies to support his pro-business agenda in the Democrat-controlled General Assembly.

The timing and political ramifications made some of these Republican beneficiaries uncomfortable,
some did not cash these checks while others held them and did not cash them right away.

“I don’t want to make it look like someone is influencing me from the administration. So, it’s setting in a drawer and we’re going to hold it,” said state Rep. David Reis, a Willow Hill Republican, speaking of the checks worth $3,000 to $10,000 that Rauner sent to each Republican member of the House and Senate.

“I thought the timing was unusual. So while we are debating issues, I thought it inappropriate to accept it,” added state Rep. Keith Sommer, R-Morton.

Rep. Dan Brady, R-Bloomington, also said the contributions felt odd.

“While we appreciate the donation, I haven’t made a final decision of where, if and when, that I’ll do with the check,” said Brady, adding he may even give away the money Rauner gave to him.

It appears the Governor’s campaign filed this amendment over the weekend to remove the contributions that were never cashed. Here are the contributions that were listed previously that are no longer listed in the latest amendment, these were likely never cashed or otherwise considered contributed under the law:

Committee Date Amount
Citizens for C.D. Davidsmeyer 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Hammond 5/5/2015 $8,000
Committee to Elect Michael W. Tyron 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends for Avery Bourne 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends for Randy Frese 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Karen McConnaughay 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Kyle McCarter 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Michael P. McAuliffe 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Reggie Phillips 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Unes 5/5/2015 $4,000
Committee to Elect Sheri Jesiel 5/5/2015 $4,000
Committee to Elect Terri Bryant 5/5/2015 $4,000
David McSweney for State Representative 5/5/2015 $4,000
Friends for John Cavaletto 5/5/2015 $3,000
Friends for Poe 5/5/2015 $3,000

And here is the list of contributions that remain, these likely were cashed.

Committee Date Amount
Citizens for Christine Radogno 5/5/2015 $10,000
Citizens for Durkin 5/5/2015 $10,000
Brady for Senate 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Bill Mitchell 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Chad Hays 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Chris Nybo 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Dale A. Righter 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Joe Sosnowski 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Kay 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Leitch 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Matt Murphy 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens For Moffitt 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Pamela J Althoff 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Pritchard 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Steve Andersson 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens for Sullivan 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens to Elect Patricia R. Bellock 5/5/2015 $8,000
Citizens to Elect Ron Sandack 5/5/2015 $8,000
Committee to Elect Dan Duffy 5/5/2015 $8,000
Committee to Elect Keith Wheeler 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Adam Brown 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Chapin Rose 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Dan Brady 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Jason Barickman 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Mark Batinick 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Mike Fortner 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Tim Butler 5/5/2015 $8,000
Friends of Tom Bennett 5/5/2015 $8,000
Team Demmer 5/5/2015 $8,000
Anderson for Illinois 5/5/2015 $4,000
Barbara Wheeler 64 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Bivins 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Brian W. Stewart 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Connelly 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for John M. Cabello 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Luechtefeld 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Tom Morrison 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens to Elect Grant Wehrli 5/5/2015 $4,000
Committee to Elect David Harris 5/5/2015 $4,000
Friends of Jeanne Ives 5/5/2015 $4,000
Friends of Jim Oberweis 5/5/2015 $4,000
Friends of John D. Anthony 5/5/2015 $4,000
Friends of Peter Breen 5/5/2015 $4,000
Friends of Sue Rezin 5/5/2015 $4,000
Keith Sommer Campaign Committee 5/5/2015 $4,000
Sam McCann for Senate 5/5/2015 $4,000
Syverson for Senate 5/5/2015 $4,000
Vote for Margo McDermed for Illnois House 5/5/2015 $4,000
Winger for Representative 5/5/2015 $4,000
Citizens for Charlie Meier 5/5/2015 $3,000
Citizens for David Reis 5/5/2015 $3,000

 

IL-GOV: How Much Will the Democratic Primary Cost

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Yesterday JB Pritzker’s campaign announced that he had contributed $7 million to his campaign, on top of the $200,000 he had previously given. It appears that because of some technical difficulties the A-1 disclosing it didn’t get filed, probably early next week.

If Pritzker has already committed $7 million towards the Democratic primary it raises the question of how much will it cost to have a chance in this primary? You probably don’t have to spend the most money to win the nomination but each candidate will have to spend enough to communicate effectively.
Here is a list of how much was spent by each Democratic candidate for Governor in the last four gubernatorial primaries that we have data for (the electronic filing era).

Cycle Candidate Period Amount Spent Vote
2014 Pat Quinn Jan 2011 – Mar 2014 $2,800,595.36 71.94%
2014 Tio Hardiman Oct 2013 – Mar 2014 $36,267.23 28.06%
2010 Pat Quinn Jan 2007 – Mar 2010 $7,543,975.34 50.46%
2010 Dan Hynes Jan 2007 – Mar 2010 $8,088,587.44 49.54%
2006 Rod Blagojevich Jan 2003 – Mar 2006 $10,593,035.28 70.84%
2006 Edwin Eisendrath Dec 2005 – Mar 2006 $1,545,344.36 29.16%
2002 Rod Blagojevich Jun 2000 – Mar 2002 $7,532,598.65 36.50%
2002 Paul Vallas Jul 2001 – Mar 2002 $3,342,309.11 34.47%
2002 Roland Burris Jun 2001 – Mar 2002 $2,001,412.81 29.03%

In 2014 Pat Quinn had token opposition and was able to get through the primary with just $2.8 million whereas the two most competitive primaries here, 2002 and 2010, each had $7.5 million spent by the winner. The 2006 number for Blagojevich is skewed a bit high because he started what was essentially a general election TV campaign in February and then didn’t really come down until late summer so his TV numbers look high here.

What’s the minimum amount that’s needed to win here? It’s hard to say but Vallas came just short spending $3.3 million and that was 15 years ago so costs have certainly gone up. It’s hard to imagine a candidate winning this primary on less than that.

Q3 Fundraising Totals

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At the end of the last three quarterly filing periods I ran the numbers and put together the fundraising totals for the General Assembly candidates, caucus committees, state parties and other relevant committees, for example here is last quarter’s.

For Q3 though I’m not going to do that for two reasons 1) money is moving so fast and so much of it has already moved since 10/1 that those figures are way out of date at this point so it would be trivia more than data and 2) so much money in those totals that looks like funds raised or funds spent was neither, it was just funds transferred from committee to committee which creates artificially large numbers. For example, the Governor transferred $20 million to the Illinois Republican Party who spent some of that and transferred the rest to the House Republican Organization and the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee who spent some of that and transferred the rest to their member committees. If you start adding all of that up it may look like $40 or $60 million raised and spent when it was the same $20 million moving around. The only way to correct for that is to pull up every expenditure for the quarter and go through them one by one to exclude the ones that were just transfers, a labor intensive and time consuming task that’s a poor use of time in mid-October of an election year.

I do plan to do that work after the Q4 filings are in so we can figure out a best estimate for what this whole process really cost, it just doesn’t make sense to do that now with so much financial activity still ongoing. It will take some effort but we’ll know in mid to late January next year.

 

Race Profiles Available

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A few updates:

  • Race profiles are now available for every General Assembly district, not just the likely targeted races. Since it now loads 177 races give the page a minute to load.
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  • I’ve also created something similar for the Comptroller’s race. Aside from the preview there is also a financial profile plus all of the historical vote totals for statewide general elections since 1990.
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  • Using the new FEC API I was able to create profiles for all of the Illinois Congressional races as well.
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  • Last, using the FEC API I have created a profile page for the US Senate race. Aside from the preview there is also a financial profile plus all of the historical vote totals for statewide general elections since 1990.

     

Embed Your Own Election Profiles

For each of the above you can embed the code for these election profiles on your own site. Use the tool here to get the embed code.

 

A-1 Contributions and In-Kinds Now Separate

For the General Assembly elections in a lot of key races the candidates are receiving in-kind contributions of staff and other costs from leadership and these are showing up on A-1’s. These numbers are not cash and were skewing the estimated cash available line so I’ve separated the A-1 totals into two lines.

 

Embed Your Own Election Profile

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If you are familiar with our election profile pages (US Senate, Comptroller, Congress, General Assembly) you can now embed these profiles into your own page/site. For the statewide races you can embed the candidates’ financial position. For the congressional and general assembly races you can embed the whole profile or just the candidates’ financial position. Use the dropdowns below to select the race/type you want and get the embed code. If the size doesn’t look right on your site feel free to adjust the height/width values in the iframe.

 

The General Assembly and Comptroller financial data are downloaded each night from the State Board of Elections and are current as of 9pm last night. The US Senate and Congressional race financial data is taken from the FEC API. See the FAQ for further details about this financial data.

 

Statewide Races

Race:

 

 

Congressional Races

Race: Type:

 

 

General Assembly Races

Race: Type:

 

 

 

 

A Campaign Finance Oddity

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A few weeks ago I was looking through A-1 filings and and noticed that State Senate candidate Seth Lewis was getting in-kinds from both HRO and the RSSCC, which I noted on Twitter.

Someone mentioned to me that the reason you rarely come across a situation where a candidate for the General Assembly is being financially supported by the caucus committee of both chambers is that it’s not allowed. I looked it up and this appears to be the case.

Here is the section on campaign contributions, the relevant section is highlighted:

5/9-8.5 Limitations on campaign contributions
(b) During an election cycle, a candidate political committee may not accept contributions with an aggregate value over the following: (i) $5,000 from any individual, (ii) $10,000 from any corporation, labor organization, or association, or (iii) $50,000 from a candidate political committee or political action committee. A candidate political committee may accept contributions in any amount from a political party committee except during an election cycle in which the candidate seeks nomination at a primary election. During an election cycle in which the candidate seeks nomination at a primary election, a candidate political committee may not accept contributions from political party committees with an aggregate value over the following: (i) $200,000 for a candidate political committee established to support a candidate seeking nomination to statewide office, (ii) $125,000 for a candidate political committee established to support a candidate seeking nomination to the Senate, the Supreme Court or Appellate Court in the First Judicial district, or an office elected by all voters in a county with 1,000,000 or more residents, (iii) $75,000 for a candidate political committee established to support a candidate seeking nomination to the House of Representatives, the Supreme Court or Appellate Court for a judicial district other than the First Judicial District, an office elected by all voters of a county of fewer than 1,000,000 residents, and municipal and county offices in Cook County other than those elected by all voters of Cook County, and (iv) $50,000 for a candidate political committee established to support the nomination of a candidate to any other office. A candidate political committee established to elect a candidate to the General Assembly may accept contributions from only one legislative caucus committee. A candidate political committee may not accept contributions from a ballot initiative committee or from an independent expenditure committee.

And here is the section on committee definitions, the relevant section is highlighted:

5/9-1.8. Political committees
(c) “Political party committee” means the State central committee of a political party, a county central committee of a political party, a legislative caucus committee, or a committee formed by a ward or township committeeman of a political party. For purposes of this Article, a “legislative caucus committee” means a committee established for the purpose of electing candidates to the General Assembly by the person elected President of the Senate, Minority Leader of the Senate, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, or a committee established by 5 or more members of the same caucus of the Senate or 10 or more members of the same caucus of the House of Representatives.

So far Republican Senate candidates Seth Lewis, Paul Schimpf and Dale Fowler are getting paid staff from both the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee (RSSCC) and the House Republican Organization (HRO). Now the House Republican Organization is running an ad against Democratic incumbent Senator Gary Forby, which would presumably be an in-kind contribution to the Fowler campaign, it even lists HRO in the paid-for-by at the end of the ad.

This part of the campaign finance law seems rather odd to me. Then again it also seems kind of odd to be paying for Senate campaigns out of the House caucus funds, if for no other reason than you’ll have to explain to angry House caucus members why your’re spending caucus funds on the Senate instead of their races. Either way under the current letter of the law I’m not sure this is permitted.

General Assembly In-Kind Contributions

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The various caucus committees have started spending money on staff and paid communications for various supported candidates via in-kind contributions. I thought you might be interested to see which candidates they are already favoring with this support. Below is a sum of in-kinds reported on A-1’s since May 1st by candidate, donor and purpose. This list shows all in-kinds but the most prevalent ones are the ones from the caucus committees. This list is generated dynamically from the State Board data so whatever day you’re looking at it it is current as of 9pm last night.

 

The Money Race for the State House (07/18/2016)

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With the latest filing deadline just passed here is the latest update on the state of the money race for the Illinois General Assembly. If you read either of our previous State of the Money Race posts back in either April or January you’ll find that the narrative hasn’t changed much. With a few notable exceptions there wasn’t a lot of fundraising done in Q2 compared to previous quarters. The only General Assembly candidate committees to raise over $100,000 in the quarter were the four legislative leaders plus Bertino-Tarrant ($136K), Forby ($109K), Hoffman ($133K), Romanik ($1 million) and Phelps ($136K). Compare that to the 4th quarter of 2015 when aside from the legislative leaders one Republican and 19 other Democratic campaign committees raised more than $100K including 11 House committees over $247K and 3 over $500K.

The big new money in the quarter came from Bob Romanik, the Republican House candidate in the Metro East’s 114th district (currently held by Eddie Lee Jackson) who loaned himself another $1 million in Q2, on top of the previous million he loaned his campaign the quarter before.

Also on the Republican side money that was already in the system moved around a bit. Governor Rauner’s campaign committee transferred $5 million to the Illinois Republican Party and then the party transferred $2 million to the House Republican Organization (the state party also transferred another $1 million to HRO on July 1st). So far there haven’t been any similar transfers to the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee.

Let’s take a look at the data starting with the current estimated cash available, here is the current cash position of all the committees involved combining the 3/30 cash on hand, plus the 3/30 investment total plus any reported A-1 amounts so far this quarter.

Current Cash Position

Candidate Q2 Cash on Hand Q2 Investments Q3 A-1s Est Funds Available
Democratic Party of Illinois $2,459,508.04 $0.00 $30,000.00 $2,489,508.04
Friends of Michael J. Madigan $1,299,318.51 $0.00 $18,309.75 $1,317,628.26
Democratic Majority $2,742,990.67 $0.00 $31,600.00 $2,774,590.67
13th Ward Democratic Org $1,239,445.41 $0.00 $1,000.00 $1,240,445.41
Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate $1,637,026.79 $300,488.79 $0.00 $1,937,515.58
Senate Democratic Victory Fund $2,468,521.98 $412,074.69 $0.00 $2,880,596.67
Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman $887,778.93 $0.00 $0.00 $887,778.93
Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $3,391,413.48 $42.36 $41,300.00 $3,432,755.84
Dem Senate Candidates $5,233,462.77 $250,007.00 $112,373.53 $5,595,843.30
Dem House Candidates $13,253,508.33 $285,941.27 $304,332.64 $13,424,572.00
Total $34,612,974.91 $1,248,554.11 $538,915.92 $35,981,234.70
Candidate Q2 Cash on Hand Q2 Investments Q3 A-1s Est Funds Available
Citizens for Rauner, Inc $15,280,774.95 $0.00 $0.00 $15,280,774.95
Turnaround Illinois $2,208,676.44 $0.00 $0.00 $2,208,676.44
Illinois Republican Party $3,052,327.80 $0.00 $10,000.00 $3,062,327.80
Citizens for Durkin $859,562.13 $0.00 $13,000.00 $872,562.13
House Republican Organization $669,355.36 $0.00 $1,023,820.05 $1,693,175.41
House Republican Leadership Committee $63,527.40 $0.00 $0.00 $63,527.40
Citizens for Christine Radogno $716,955.96 $0.00 $32,000.00 $748,955.96
Republican State Senate Campaign Committee $448,015.28 $0.00 $6,421.00 $454,436.28
Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $956,674.76 $0.00 $3,000.00 $959,674.76
Rep Senate Candidates $1,578,309.02 $45,300.00 $44,361.18 $1,667,970.20
Rep House Candidates $5,462,830.51 $25.00 $165,776.92 $5,628,632.43
Total $31,297,009.61 $45,325.00 $1,298,379.15 $32,640,713.76

It’s somewhat remarkable that even with the Governor’s personal wealth and his allied wealthy donors the Democrats have been able to keep pace in the money race. They currently have about $3.4 million more than the Republicans but that advantage can be quickly wiped out if or when the Governor and his allies start writing big checks again. Also the Independent Expenditure committee Liberty Principles PAC has just over $4 million and they have been closely allied with the Governor this cycle so it’s basically a wash.

Now let’s look at the same info while adding in the amounts that have already been spent so far this cycle (including in-kinds as spending):

Cycle Spending Ability

Candidate Already Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Q2 Investments Q3 A-1s Cycle Spending Ability
Democratic Party of Illinois $605,891.63 $2,459,508.04 $0.00 $30,000.00 $3,095,399.67
Friends of Michael J. Madigan $1,929,553.60 $1,299,318.51 $0.00 $18,309.75 $3,247,181.86
Democratic Majority $934,771.61 $2,742,990.67 $0.00 $31,600.00 $3,709,362.28
13th Ward Democratic Org $329,614.62 $1,239,445.41 $0.00 $1,000.00 $1,570,060.03
Citizens for John Cullerton for State Senate $794,210.49 $1,637,026.79 $300,488.79 $0.00 $2,731,726.07
Senate Democratic Victory Fund $1,927,734.85 $2,468,521.98 $412,074.69 $0.00 $4,808,331.52
Committee to Support John Cullerton for State Central Committeeman $96,100.57 $887,778.93 $0.00 $0.00 $983,879.50
Dem Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $2,067,590.58 $3,391,413.48 $42.36 $41,300.00 $5,500,346.42
Dem Senate Candidates $5,092,818.51 $5,233,462.77 $250,007.00 $112,373.53 $10,688,661.81
Dem House Candidates $12,553,717.80 $13,253,508.33 $285,941.27 $304,332.64 $26,397,500.04
Total $26,332,004.26 $34,612,974.91 $1,248,554.11 $538,915.92 $62,732,449.20
Candidate Already Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Q2 Investments Q3 A-1s Cycle Spending Ability
Citizens for Rauner, Inc $7,861,569.64 $15,280,774.95 $0.00 $0.00 $23,142,344.59
Turnaround Illinois $4,048,696.21 $2,208,676.44 $0.00 $0.00 $6,257,372.65
Illinois Republican Party $4,421,430.97 $3,052,327.80 $0.00 $10,000.00 $7,483,758.77
Citizens for Durkin $646,240.22 $859,562.13 $0.00 $13,000.00 $1,518,802.35
House Republican Organization $2,444,183.13 $669,355.36 $0.00 $1,023,820.05 $4,137,358.54
House Republican Leadership Committee $5,036.25 $63,527.40 $0.00 $0.00 $68,563.65
Citizens for Christine Radogno $217,658.58 $716,955.96 $0.00 $32,000.00 $966,614.54
Republican State Senate Campaign Committee $901,413.56 $448,015.28 $0.00 $6,421.00 $1,355,849.84
Rep Senators Not On Ballot This Cycle $626,464.56 $956,674.76 $0.00 $3,000.00 $1,586,139.32
Rep Senate Candidates $2,781,646.46 $1,578,309.02 $45,300.00 $44,361.18 $4,449,616.66
Rep House Candidates $4,527,111.13 $5,462,830.51 $25.00 $165,776.92 $10,155,743.56
Total $28,481,450.71 $31,297,009.61 $45,325.00 $1,298,379.15 $61,122,164.47
Committee Already Spent
Primary Independent Expenditure Spending (B-1’s) $11,168,207.97
Candidate Already Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Q1 Investments Q2 A-1s Cycle Spending Ability
Democratic Primary Losing Candidates $3,495,619.55 $200,191.71 $0.00 $0.00 $3,695,811.26
Republican Primary Losing Candidates $1,689,475.32 $21,288.66 $0.00 $0.00 $1,710,763.98

When you look at what’s already been spent on legislative races so far plus what is still available to spend the amount is already over $140 million which is an eye popping number, but there is a catch. Some of those spending amounts are really just transfers of money already inside the system. So for example when the Gov’s campaign committee transferred $5 million to the Illinois Republican Party back in May, who then transferred $2 million to the House Republican Organization that looks like $7 million in spending when no new money entered or left the system, it just got moved around a bit. Unfortunately there’s no easy way to filter these amounts out, I’ll see what I can do in the future.

Edited to add:
I pulled up all of the expenditures of $30,000 or more and tried to figure out which ones to subtract to address this double counting issue. I came up with $12,477,100.00, you can download my list to review my work here. That means that we believe that roughly $128 million either already has been spent or is in the bank available to be spent for the 2016 General Assembly elections.

Finally, here are the other top 25 committees that have notable funds and could impact the fall elections if they so choose.

Name COH INV A-1 Est Funds Avail
Friends of Edward M Burke $2,090,259.42 $6,257,127.37 $0.00 $8,347,386.79
Liberty Principles PAC $4,047,466.15 $0.00 $0.00 $4,047,466.15
Laborers’ Political Action and Education League $2,229,666.33 $0.00 $0.00 $2,229,666.33
Citizens for Lisa Madigan $2,194,850.80 $0.00 $0.00 $2,194,850.80
Laborers’ Political League – Great Lakes Region $1,759,912.79 $0.00 $0.00 $1,759,912.79
Illinois PAC for Education (IPACE) $1,753,013.79 $0.00 $0.00 $1,753,013.79
Illinois State Medical Society PAC $374,778.67 $1,261,198.00 $0.00 $1,635,976.67
Chicagoland Operators Joint Labor-Management PAC $1,565,230.36 $0.00 $0.00 $1,565,230.36
Carpenters Helping in the Political Process (CHIPP) $1,533,859.02 $0.00 $0.00 $1,533,859.02
The Burnham Committee $1,400,263.49 $0.00 $0.00 $1,400,263.49
Biss for Illinois $1,374,174.71 $0.00 $24,300.00 $1,398,474.71
Friends for Susana Mendoza $1,332,604.13 $0.00 $30,500.00 $1,363,104.13
Stand for Children IL PAC $1,092,582.40 $0.00 $0.00 $1,092,582.40
Support Independent Maps $1,017,355.40 $0.00 $32,000.00 $1,049,355.40
Citizens for Alderman Reilly $1,039,888.10 $0.00 $0.00 $1,039,888.10
REALTORS Political Action Committee $988,921.20 $0.00 $9,000.00 $997,921.20
Roofers’ Political Educational and Legislative Fund $196,615.49 $749,380.67 $0.00 $945,996.16
Dan Rutherford Campaign Committee $11,216.37 $899,648.00 $0.00 $910,864.37
Committee to Elect Joseph Berrios Assessor $832,194.22 $0.00 $0.00 $832,194.22
Citizens for Judy Baar Topinka $830,415.98 $0.00 $0.00 $830,415.98
Citizens for Giannoulias $780,209.84 $0.00 $0.00 $780,209.84
Friends of Suarez $15,732.32 $750,000.00 $0.00 $765,732.32
Illinois Federation of Teachers COPE $741,932.05 $0.00 $0.00 $741,932.05
Cook County Democratic Party $728,276.43 $0.00 $0.00 $728,276.43
Citizens for Claar $148,489.37 $507,574.31 $0.00 $656,063.68

If you’d like to check my math or investigate and calculate further the data I used to create the tables above can be found here.

 

Note: these figures are our best estimates and include some double counting of funds, which cannot be avoided. For example not all funds listed in “Transfers In” come from political committees that are already registered with the State Board but for those that do these transfers aren’t new money coming into the system, they’re simply transfers from one fund to another. If those transfers are from funds that are involved in legislative elections to funds involved in legislative elections (such as when Governor Rauner transferred funds to the state party) then we are double counting those funds. The same goes for in-kinds, not all in-kinds are double counted but when a committee that is involved in legislative elections provides and in-kind to another committee involved in legislative elections (such as when the Speaker’s leadership committee, Democratic Majority, spent money on mailings on behalf of incumbent House Dems who then reported those transactions as in-kind donations received) we’re just seeing the same numbers twice. The only way to control for this double counting would involve manually going through and coding tens of thousands of transactions to determine if each transaction a) involved two committees that were both registered with the State Board and b) both funds were involved with this cycle’s legislative elections. That’s just not a realistic option so we’re left with our best estimates above.

 

 

Auditing Campaign Committees

Published on

Reaction to the news that Ken Dunkin finished the quarter with $1.2 million remaining in his campaign committee account has been varied, including some speculation that perhaps this reported figure is due to inaccurate accounting and his committee’s actual cash balance is significantly less.

In various situations the State Board of Elections can order an audit of a political committee, in some instances based on certain parameters that would warrant an audit and also they have the ability to randomly audit a limited number of committees. A few years ago I was involved in the record keeping of a committee that was randomly audited, it was a minor headache to assemble all the records for the auditor and of course we then had to pay a fee to an auditor but our records were in order so it wasn’t an overly burdensome process. It will be interesting to see if an audit is ordered in this situation.

Here is the relevant section of the election code:

5/9-13. Audits of political committees.

(a) The Board shall have the authority to order a political committee to conduct an audit of the financial records required to be maintained by the committee to ensure compliance with Sections 9-8.5 and 9-10. Audits ordered by the Board shall be conducted as provided in this Section and as provided by Board rule.

(b) The Board may order a political committee to conduct an audit of its financial records for any of the following reasons: (i) a discrepancy between the ending balance of a reporting period and the beginning balance of the next reporting period, (ii) failure to account for previously reported investments or loans, or (iii) a discrepancy between reporting contributions received by or expenditures made for a political committee that are reported by another political committee, except the Board shall not order an audit pursuant to this item (iii) unless there is a willful pattern of inaccurate reporting or there is a pattern of similar inaccurate reporting involving similar contributions by the same contributor. Prior to ordering an audit, the Board shall afford the political committee due notice and an opportunity for a closed preliminary hearing. A political committee shall hire an entity qualified to perform an audit; except, a political committee shall not hire a person that has contributed to the political committee during the previous 4 years.

(c) In each calendar year, the Board shall randomly order no more than 3% of registered political committees to conduct an audit. The Board shall establish a standard, scientific method of selecting the political committees that are to be audited so that every political committee has an equal mathematical chance of being selected.

(d) Upon receipt of notification from the Board ordering an audit, a political committee shall conduct an audit of the financial records required to be maintained by the committee to ensure compliance with the contribution limitations established in Section 9-8.5 and the reporting requirements established in Section 9-3 and Section 9-10 for a period of 2 years or the period since the committee was previously ordered to conduct an audit, whichever is shorter. The entity performing the audit shall review the amount of funds and investments maintained by the political committee and ensure the financial records accurately account for any contributions and expenditures made by the political committee. A certified copy of the audit shall be delivered to the Board within 60 calendar days after receipt of notice from the Board, unless the Board grants an extension to complete the audit. A political committee ordered to conduct an audit through the random selection process shall not be required to conduct another audit for a minimum of 5 years unless the Board has reason to believe the political committee is in violation of Section 9-3, 9-8.5, or 9-10.
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(e) The Board shall not disclose the name of any political committee ordered to conduct an audit or any documents in possession of the Board related to an audit unless, after review of the audit findings, the Board has reason to believe the political committee is in violation of Section 9-3, 9-8.5, or 9-10 and the Board imposed a fine.

(f) Failure to deliver a certified audit in a timely manner is a business offense punishable by a fine of $250 per day that the audit is late, up to a maximum of $5,000.